High Wind in Alaska, January 17 to 18, 2005

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1130 AM AST MON JAN 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS SE ALASKA FROM CSP-JUST N
FFIA2 FORECAST TO MOVE A BIT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TUESDAY TO NORTH OF PAJN TUESDAY NIGHT.
A 980 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL BE IN BC BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AND COMPLEX 967
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 50/150 QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY FILLING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL EJECT A SMALLER 980 MB LOW
THAT TRACK N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY AND THEN TO WESTERN
GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. A 1038 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
NORTHERN ALCAN CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. STATIONARY 50H TOUGH EXTENDING FROM YUKON SW TO NE GULF
NARROWS AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ENERGY SPLITTING
TO NE AND SW.

FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE...ARCTIC OUT FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE
WITH STORM FORCE NORTH WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING. MAROB SUGGEST 50 KT WINDS NEAR TAKU INLET AND AROUND
ERO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE
AFTERNOON AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO LOWER TEENS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH WIND CHILLS
10 BELOW NEAR SEA LEVEL AND TO 25 BELOW ZERO FOR PASSES. COLD AIR
MOVES BACK TO NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
BY TUE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH PAHN AND PAYA. LATEST SNOW GUIDANCE FOR
PAY SUGGEST 8-12 TO 18 INCHES FOR PAHN TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WED AND WILL CONTINUE WSA.

NORTH CENTRAL WILL CONTINUED TO BE BURIED BY HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT 12-18 MORE INCHES ON TOP OF 10-20
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ETA HAS BEST OVERRUNNING 12Z-18Z. AS
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY EVE/NIGH DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO GO TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE STRAIT RAIN EARLY WED.
WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA FAIRLY STRONG IN MARINE CHANNELS WITH SOME
GUSTS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS IN PAJN THROUGH THE DAY.
GRADIENTS RELAX OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD WINDS DROP OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY. EAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 THROUGH THE DAY
WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR EXITING CROSS SOUND TO KEEP SNOW ADVISORY
FOR ZONE 22 THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL INCLUDE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
ZONE 24.

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MODERATE RAIN TODAY TAPERING OFF IN AFTERNOON
WITH CAA ALOFT. WIND SHIFT AAT PAWG HAS LOWER TEMPERATURES 11
DEGREES IN 3 HOURS SO COULD SEE PRECIPITATION MIX BACK WITH SNOW
BUT DO EXPECT IT TO GO BACK TO MODERATE RAIN AS NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT. ALSO SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN  THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS
OF ZONE 29. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH DO THINK
HYDER WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATER TONIGHT WHEN
FRONT MOVES ALOFT BUT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS TOO LOW AND WILL UP
ACCUMULATIONS TO 12 INCHES FOR TONIGHT PERIOD. SE WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH TODAY WITH NEXT ADVISORY LEVEL SE WINDS
STARTING AROUND 15Z TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HERE WILL BE IN THE 40S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG RANGE...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL
LOCATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SPIN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS UP TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. EACH OF THESE FRONTS WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR A BIT
MORE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH AND POOL OF
COLD AIR OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NUNAVUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN
MAKING IT EASIER FOR THE WARM MOIST AIR OFF OF THE GULF TO MOVE
INLAND. SNOW IN THE JUNEAU AREA WILL PROBABLY START MIXING WITH
RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO
AROUND 500 FEET. HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL TAKE AT LEAST UNTIL
THURSDAY FOR THE SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN IF IT MIXES AT ALL.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. BY FRIDAY SNOW LEVELS IN THE JUNEAU
AREA WILL INCREASE TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 1750 FEET THEN DROP TO
AROUND 1000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND.

FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND
THEN TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A WARMER...VERY WET FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS (MELTED PRECIPITATION) FOR JUNEAU WILL BE
AROUND 0.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY WED WITH AND ADDITIONAL 0.25
INCHES WED NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER HALF INCH ON SUNDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WSW THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR SRN 19, 20, 21, 25, AND 29
         SNOW ADVISORY 22 AND 24
         HWW 18, NRN 19, AND NRN 20 GOING TO ADVISORY TONIGHT
         WIND ADVISORY 22
         WSA 17, 18, AND NRN 19 TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MARINE...GALE WITH STORM GUSTS 11,12,13, AND 31 INTO TUE
         GALE 21, 22, 51, 52 THROUGH TUE

MM - JER