Winter Storm in Vermont, December 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 AM EST MON DEC 27 2004

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...
A SNOWY NGT/MORNING FOR THE REGION AS A COMBINED LOW OFF CAPE COD
AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO BRING WINTRY WX OVER THE
CWA. BACK EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH SEEN OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY ON IR/WV
LOOPS. MDLS DO NOT HAVE THIS TROUGH LIFTING CLR OF CWA TIL
MIDDAY/EARLY AFT AS IT HOLDS TIGHT TIL OCEAN LOW MVS NNE INTO
MARITIMES REGION. STILL EXPECTING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF
CWA THRU MID/LATE MORN BFR TAPERING OFF THE -SW. ALSO EXPECT --SW TO
BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT IN CVLY AND NC NE VT AS NORTH FLOW
ASSOCIATED ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH COULD KEEP CLDS AND PRECIP OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT LONGER THAN REST OF CWA. FLUFF FACTOR HAS BEEN
THE KEY TO THIS EVENT AND STILL EXPECT POSSIBLE 1 TO 3 MORE INCHES
FROM DACKS EAST BFR IT ALL WINDS DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL
CONTINUE WSWBTV THRU THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST POPS/SNOW TOTALS IN
GRIDS TO RELFECT THIS. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH MVS OVER NORTHEAST MON
INTO TUES MORN...SETTING UP A VERY COLD NGT FOR THE CWA. THINK THAT
MDL GUIDANCE TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR OVERNGT LOWS FOR MON
NGT BASED ON ABUNDANT SNOW ON GROUND AND STRONG NW FLOW AHEAD OF
HIGH SHOULD DRAG TEMPS DOWN...SO WILL BE GOING LOWER THAN GUIDANCE.

NEXT UP FOR THE CWA WILL BE ANOTHER LOW SET TO AFFECT REGION TUE
INTO WED. THIS HAS BEEN FORECASTED BY MDLS AND IN ZONES OVER PAST
FEWS DAYS. LATEST RUNS SHOWING LESS PRECIP TO AFFECT REGION AT THE
ONSET ON TUES. SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER AREA FOR EXTENDED TIME...THUS
AFFECTING APPROACH OF THIS NEXT LOW. AS A RESULT...WILL BACK OFF ON
MORNING POPS FOR EVENT ON TUES...BUT KEEP REST UP FOR LATE TUES INTO
WED MORN...WHICH LOOKS GD ATTM IN THIS TIME PERIOD. COULD ONLY END
UP W/ INCH OR SO BASED ON LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...
SOME LINGERING -SW POSSIBLE AS FRNT DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEAST W/
EXITING SYSTEM WED NITE INTO EARLY THURS MORN. MDLS GIVE HINT AT
SOME LIGHT POPS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL LEAVE OFF
FOR NOW BUT KEEP CLDS IN UNTIL HIGH MVS OVER CWA THUR MORN. HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THURS...OPENING UP REGION
TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. PROBLEM FOR NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA
WILL BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MVS NE INTO
CANADA FRI INTO SAT. AS WARM FRNT LIFT THRU CWA COLD AIRMASS OVER
AREA AT THAT TIME WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE -FZRA/IP THURS
NGT/EARLY FRI MORN...BFR SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN W/ POSSIBLE MIX
OF -SW ON FRI. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING
-FZRA AS MDL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY FOR PAST FEW DAYS...BUT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS(20%) FOR THIS FOR NOW. SFC LOW MVS EAST OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRI INTO SAT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FRNT TO MV SOUTH OVER
REGION ON SAT. CURRENT MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP STILL LOOKS GD ATTM
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AND WILL NOT CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION TO PROVIDE GD DAY FOR REGION ON SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLE
LINGERING -SW...BUT WILL WAIT AND NOT EXTEND LINGERING PRECIP
FURTHER INTO SUNDAY AS CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND...AND WILL
NOT CHANGE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
IFR VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME
WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS...EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
SNOW AFTER 15Z. AFTER 18Z EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING OBSCURED
IN CLOUDS AND SOME LOCAL 6SM -SN POSSIBLE...AFT 21Z EXPECTING CLOUDS
TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
AFT 00Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ001-002-005-009-016>018.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH