Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, December 27 to 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON DEC 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TWO MAIN ISSUES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE EAST
WE HAVE A LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA MOVING TO THE
EAST. THIS STORM PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WE
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO WEST WIND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE PRICE WILLIAM SOUND ZONES BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW LONG
THE SNOW WILL BE RE-SUSPENDED IN THESE AREAS TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AND BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DEEP COLD AIR
POOLING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER CANYON TO THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE AND
POSSIBLY INTO WED. FURTHER NORTH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION WE ARE
CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY FROM CHULITNA NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STRONG NORTH WIND OUT OF BROAD PASS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE FROM LAST
WEEK IS WE HAVE NOT HAD MUCH SNOW FALL IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. KODIAK
ISLAND WILL SEE THE TYPICAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND COMMON WITH A LOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE COLDER DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE ISLAND. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR
TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONG GRADIENT OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST UNTIL WED MORNING.

THE NEXT STORM MOVING INTO THE PICTURE IS ONE CURRENTLY PRODUCING
STORM FORCE WIND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS STORM WILL TRACK TO
THE EAST IMPACTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE WRECK OF SELENDANG
AYU BY TUE AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME THE WIND WILL BE IN THE GALE FORCE
RANGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND WE EXPECT THE WRECK SITE TO STAY IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THU. THE ONSET OF THE GALE FORCE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE OR STRONGER TURBULENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ISLAND BEGINNING WED MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD ZONES 131 AND 125. HIGH WIND ZONE 135.
MARINE...STORM 2B1 2C 3A 3B 13A 13B. GALE 2B 2C4 3C 4A 5A 5B 6A 6B
12B 14.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE

SAM DEC 04