Texas, 2004

Heavy Snow in Texas, November 13, 2004

November 13, 2004 · NWS MAF · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 heavy snow, as filed by the National Weather Service.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 13, 5:25 AM MST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 13, 5:25 AM MST, 3 hours 5 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO UPDGRADE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING HAS COOLED COLUMN
TO FREEZING AND BELOW WITH DECENT PRECIPITATION STILL HEADED TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

.SHORT TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY EJECTING
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN ARIZONA. KMAF RADAR INDICATING
RAPID EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES
OF NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 700 MILLIBARS IS BEING OFFSET BY DECENT DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE...PRODUCING SNOW MIX IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. WILL PAINT THE BEST POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL)
TODAY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE WAVE TRANSLATES
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN POPULATED AREAS
WITH NO ADVISORY. WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WITH THE
STRONG LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. WILL ALSO MENTION A
SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH NO ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF EDDY AND
LEA COUNTY PLAINS NORTH OF A CARLSBAD TO HOBBS LINE. WINDS HAVE GONE
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT THE PASS LAST HOUR AND MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT
AGAIN WITH HIGH WIND THROUGH 18Z TODAY BUT DONT THINK IT WILL BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING. MENTIONED
PATCHY FOG MOST ZONED TODAY.

EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BE ON THE DOWN SWING BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT HEAD TOWARD THE REGION
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. PAINTED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT WAVE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A SNOW MIX AGAIN IN THE GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS OF EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
MOST ZONES TONIGHT. OTHER GRIDS LOOKED IN REASONABLE SHAPE AND SAW NO
NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS LOOK VERY WET AS UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA AND DOES NOT
WANT TO LEAVE... INSTEAD JUST WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO.  LOCATION OF PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF AREA LOOKS SIMILAR TO PATTERN THAT BROUGHT FLOODING TO REGION LATE
SEPT/EARLY OCT.  MODELS DEVELOP AREA OF DIFFLUENCE NORTHEAST OF LOW
THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL AS GUIDANCE GIVING HIGH POPS
AND QPF SHOWS CONTINUAL PRECIP THROUGH 120 HRS.  FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP ALREADY ON RADAR.  HAVE RAISED POPS SEVERAL PERIODS... MAY
NEED TO RAISE THEM MORE.  WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HWO.

WILL HAVE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG VORT
MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.  PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS EASTERLY
SURFACE WIND KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  WITH THIS
COMBINATION DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW PRECIP WILL NOT CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE END OF THE WEEK DRYS OUT AS TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
AND FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUD COVER
REMAINS NEARLY CONSTANT.  MAY GET REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WIND BECOMES NORTHERLY...
HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             43  41  47  42 /  60  50  70  60
CARLSBAD NM               41  36  46  33 /  80  60  60  50
DRYDEN TX                 50  46  56  48 /  30  40  60  60
FORT STOCKTON TX          46  41  50  39 /  40  50  60  60
GUADALUPE PASS TX         39  32  43  30 /  90  70  60  50
HOBBS NM                  40  38  46  36 /  80  50  70  50
MARFA TX                  53  38  53  37 /  30  50  50  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   43  40  46  41 /  60  50  70  60
ODESSA TX                 44  41  46  40 /  60  50  70  60
WINK TX                   48  44  50  39 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TXZ258.
NM...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NMZ027.

&&

12/72
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 13, 5:20 AM MST, 3 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132100-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
620 AM CST (520 AM MST) SAT NOV 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
PLAINS...NORTH OF A CARLSBAD TO HOBBS LINE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

12

Event by event

1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Guadalupe Mountains of Culberson County

When
November 13, 8:30 AM MST to 2:00 PM MST
Where
Guadalupe Mountains of Culberson County forecast zone
Reported by
PARK/FOREST SERVICE

A strong storm system brought a round of heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains on the 13th. Park rangers reported that between four and six inches of snow had accumulated at the Guadalupe Mountains National Park Visitor's Center near Pine Springs by 11:00 MST.

What these are

Heavy Snow
Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5427025.