Synopsis: In advance of an upper level low approaching slowly from the west, light to moderate rain began falling in the mid afternoon of January 16. Due to the saturated nature of soils over the area, nearly all rainfall became runoff, with flash flooding developing across low water crossings with accumulations as little as one half inch.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
Synopsis: In advance of an upper level low approaching slowly from the west, light to moderate rain began falling in the mid afternoon of January 16. Due to the saturated nature of soils over the area, nearly all rainfall became runoff, with flash flooding developing across low water crossings with accumulations as little as one half inch. A general rainfall of one-half inch to one inch covered South Central Texas, with isolated maximum totals of up to 4 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 2:00 PM CST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 200 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2004 .DISCUSSION...PRECIP BECOMING MORE HEAVY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE UNDER PLAYED WESTWARD EXTENT OF HEAVY RAIN AND WILL REISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL BUT OUR THREE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES AND EXTEND TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EWX RADAR CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING PRECIP TOTALS BY 60 PERCENT. EWX VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW TOTALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 25K FT TRAINING PRECIP TO THE MAX. NO BASIC CHANGES TO THINKING WITH HEAVY PRECIP MOVING OUT TONIGHT. LOW WRAP AROUND POPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THINK LOWER LEVELS A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY. SPELL OF BETTER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER BIG UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY STILL ANOTHER BIT WET SYSTEM EARLY THE WEEK OF JAN. 26. && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN BERGSTROM 057 067 045 055 100 30 20 20 DEL RIO 053 070 043 057 60 10 10 20 SAN ANTONIO 057 067 045 055 100 20 20 20 03/19/23
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:28 UTC.
11 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
General 1 to 2 inch totals fell across the county with isolated amounts to 3 inches in the southeast portion. Roads were closed between Yorktown and Cuero, with highway 87 blocked by high water in Cuero.
General 1 to 2 inch totals fell across Gonzales County. Isolated amounts to 3 inches were reported in the eastern part of the county. Peach Creek was in flood and was reported over FM795.
General 1 to 2 inch totals fell across Kendall County, with isolated amounts to 3 inches in the northwest portion. Several roads were closed due to flash flooding.
Rainfall over Medina County was generally between one half inch and one inch. Isolated totals to near 3 inches were reported in the northwest part of the county. Roads were closed in the Natalia area in the southeast part of the county.
Bandera County reported a general rainfall of between 1 and 2 inches over the county, with isolated totals with isolated amounts to 3 inches between Pipe Creek and Bandera. Numerous roads were closed in and around Pipe Creek.
A general one inch rain fell across Travis County, with isolated amounts of up to to 4 inches in the western part of the county. Although the worst flooding took part in the western part of the county, roads were closed in the city of Austin where several high water rescues were performed.
Rainfall in Williamson County averaged near 1 in the west and one-half inch in the east. Isolated totals to 4 inches were reported between Liberty Hill and Florence along the western edge of the county. Numerous roads were closed over western Williamson County.
General 1 rain was reported over most of Burnet County. The highest amounts were along the eastern boundary with Williamson and Travis Counties, where totals to 3 inches were indicated. Numerous county roads, including DR 211, 212, 213, and 243E, were closed across the county.
Rainfall over Hays County averaged near 1 inch with isolated totals in the northwest part of the county to 3 inches.
Llano County reported a general rainfall of around 1 inch, with isolated amounts to 3 inches over the northwest portion. Several roads were closed in western Llano County
Rainfall over Bastrop County averaged near 1 inch with isolated totals to 3 inches between Rosanky, Bastrop and Elgin.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5384996, 5385119, 5385120, 5385121, 5385122, 5385123, 5385124, 5385125, 5385126, 5385127, 5385128.