Cold in Alaska, January 16 to 18, 2004

Name: Cold in Alaska, January 16 to 18, 2004
Start: 2004-01-16T15:20
End: 2004-01-18T12:36
Location: Alaska

January 16 to 18, 2004 · NWS AFG · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Moderate winds combined with cold temperatures from a large high pressure center covering the Arctic Ocean, resulted in dangerous wind chills. Hours of events are for wind chills colder than -65F.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.

Moderate winds combined with cold temperatures from a large high pressure center covering the Arctic Ocean, resulted in dangerous wind chills. Hours of events are for wind chills colder than -65F. Coldest Wind chills:Zone 201: Point Lay: -71F. Zone 206: Anaktuvuk Pass: -76F.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 6:00 AM AST, 9 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 6:00 AM AST, 9 hours 20 minutes before

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM AST FRI JAN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER QUIET AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE NORTHERN ALASKAS WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP AND COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH VERY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING S-WARD FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC OVER
THE STATE IS PRODUCING QUITE COLD TEMPS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM ZERO TO 20 BELOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND FROM 20 TO 45 BELOW OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST. WINDS
ARE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY STRONG S-LY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
THROUGH BROOKS RANGES PASSES OF ZONE 206 EAST OF A WEAK LOW CENTER
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 205.
AREAS OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
YUKON DELTA AND ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. SOME ICE FOG IS ALSO FOUND
NEAR SETTLEMENTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE MODEL OF CHOICE CONTINUES TO BE THE ETA. THIS IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE AVN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY SUN WHILE THE ETA KEEPS THIS LOW CENTER OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA, WHERE THE BEST THERMAL PACKING AND
DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO STAY. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FURTHER SOUTH, THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
HIGH CENTER OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE RATHER THEN ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THUS, THE STRONG S-LY
WINDS THAT ARE NOW OCCURRING THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SAT, THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. MODERATE-STRONG E-LY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND SAT AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BARTER ISLAND AND POINT LAY ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS EVENT, WITH QUITE
LOW WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING SNOW.

THE COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH MON MORNING, THEN RETROGRADE SLOWLY W-WARD, MOVING OVER
THE BERING SEA ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. E-LY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY PULL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS W-WARD
OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SMALL, A DUSTING AT MOST. AREAS
THAT SEE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SEE THEIR TEMPS MODERATED SOMEWHAT
WHILE AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE COLD
TEMPS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STATEWIDE MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME S-LY. CLOUDS
WINDS, AND, CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT N-WARD. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY WITH
MUCH CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH WARMING, THUS WILL AWAIT LATER MODEL
UPDATES BEFORE BECOMING MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE WEATHER BEYOND
SUNDAY.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVY 206 THIS EVENING. WIND CHILL 201 TONIGHT.
MARINE...NONE

MP JAN 04

Event by event

2 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Cold/Wind Chill, Western Arctic Coast

When: January 16, 3:20 PM AST to January 17, 2:59 PM AST
Where: Western Arctic Coast forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

Cold/Wind Chill, N. Brooks Rng E of Colville R

When: January 18, 2:36 AM AST to 12:36 PM AST
Where: N. Brooks Rng E of Colville R forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

What these are

Cold/Wind Chill: Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, January 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5381296, 5381297.