Damaging Wind in Texas, April 23, 2004

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
840 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.UPDATE...00Z CRP SOUNDING BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS THAT CAP AT 800
MB MAY BE ERODING. FURTHER WEST...DRT SOUNDING IMPRESSIVE SHOWING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAP ERODED AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. RUC
POINT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUED ERODING OF CAP ACROSS CRP CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FIRED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE BEEN SLOW AT SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECT
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF SIERRA
MADRE. INSTABILITY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOULD SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE...ALONG WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PROVIDING INCREASING LIFT AND MID/UPR LVL
DIFFLUENCE (NOTED BETWEEN BRO/DRT SOUNDINGS). SHOULD CONVECTION
ORGANIZE...CORFIDI VECTORS IMPLY EAST-SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SPC HAS EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK INTO
CWA...WITH THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF LIVE OAK/JIM WELLS LINE. MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WILL BE UPDATING HWO
MOMENTARILY ALONG WITH ZFP TO INCLUDE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE OUT
WEST. CURRENT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD...HIGHEST WEST. ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF CWA...EXPECT ISOL ELEVATED RWS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN CONVECTION MOVED OUT OF RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
INTO COASTAL BEND.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ270-275

&&

JR...SHORT-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-241100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
850 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WEST OF A LIVE OAK
TO JIM WELLS COUNTY LINE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS APPEARS LOW...WITH
MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO STAY
INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINES
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL...BUT AT THIS TIME NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.  NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

91/86/TR/JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
922 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

TXZ229-230-239-240-240500-
DUVAL-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-WEBB-
922 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

...STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE...

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING... GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED OF THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
INCLUDING FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

JR