Flash Flood in Arkansas, April 23 to 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
251 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...THIS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES FROM NEAR SPS TO MIAMI OKLAHOMA
AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. I EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AS THE CAP WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEXT FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    59   69   51   70 / 100  100   50   10
FSM    62   72   56   70 / 100  100   60   30
MLC    64   71   53   71 / 100  100   60   10
BVO    52   68   50   69 / 100  100   50   10
FYV    59   68   51   67 / 100  100   60   30
BYV    56   69   51   66 / 100  100   60   30
MKO    62   69   52   71 / 100  100   60   10
MIO    52   68   51   68 / 100  100   60   10
F10    62   69   52   71 / 100  100   50   10
HHW    65   73   55   71 / 100  100   60   10

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 400 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES OKZ049...
OKZ053>076.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
   AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF A JAY...HENRYETTA LINE.  SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG.  BY MID AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  GIVEN THE FORECASTED WIND FIELDS...THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE THIS EVENING
WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.  VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED
WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITIES SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AREAS WHERE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATUL/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TULSA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE AREA WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE QUIESCENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             10 N OKEMAH             35.58N 96.30W
04/22/2004  0.88 INCH        OKFUSKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0740 PM     HAIL             OKAY                    35.85N 95.32W
04/22/2004  0.75 INCH        WAGONER            OK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0745 PM     HAIL             GREENLAND               35.99N 94.18W
04/22/2004  1.75 INCH        WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

0825 PM     HAIL             4 W TAHLEQUAH           35.92N 95.04W
04/22/2004  0.88 INCH        CHEROKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0832 PM     HAIL             TAHLEQUAH               35.92N 94.97W
04/22/2004  0.88 INCH        CHEROKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0920 PM     HAIL             2 E INDIANOLA           35.16N 95.74W
04/22/2004  1.75 INCH        PITTSBURG          OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0930 PM     HAIL             ST PAUL                 35.82N 93.77W
04/22/2004  0.88 INCH        MADISON            AR   PUBLIC

1130 PM     HAIL             3 S BEARDEN             35.30N 96.39W
04/22/2004  0.75 INCH        OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

1205 AM     HAIL             WELEETKA                35.34N 96.14W
04/23/2004  0.75 INCH        OKFUSKEE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

ARZ001-010-019-020-029-OKZ049-059>076-240100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-
FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-
MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON AR-
218 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 111 IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUICKLY SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  RESIDENTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W COOKSON             35.71N 94.96W
04/21/2004  60 MPH           CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

0930 PM     HAIL             2 W COOKSON             35.71N 94.92W
04/21/2004  0.88 INCH        CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

1030 PM     HAIL             OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
04/21/2004  0.75 INCH        OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

1040 PM     HAIL             UNIONTOWN               35.58N 94.44W
04/21/2004  0.88 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   PUBLIC

0643 PM     HAIL             1 NW PROCTOR            35.98N 94.79W
04/22/2004  1.75 INCH        ADAIR              OK   POST OFFICE

1202 AM     HAIL             CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.52W
04/23/2004  0.75 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0235 AM     HAIL             STILWELL                35.81N 94.63W
04/23/2004  1.75 INCH        ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

OKZ054>058-240100-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
302 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 112 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE OKLAHOMA...KANSAS BORDER.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
INTO THE WATCH AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  RESIDENTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AS WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HAIL             BURBANK                 36.69N 96.73W
04/23/2004  0.75 INCH        OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

0955 AM     HAIL             SHIDLER                 36.78N 96.66W
04/23/2004  0.75 INCH        OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

            PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

1015 AM     HAIL             GRAINOLA                36.94N 96.65W
04/23/2004  0.75 INCH        OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

OKZ063-068-069-232130-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-
328 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE AND ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 328 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SCRAPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAKS...TWIN OAKS...
KANSAS...COLCORD...WEST SILOAM SPRINGS AND SCRAPER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.