Flood and Hail in Kansas, April 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
347 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERN...
PCPN/CNVTV TRENDS AND QPF AMOUNTS TNGT/SAT...

UPR LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MRNG WL CONT TO SPIN ACRS
THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TODAY AS IT AWAITS UPSTREAM KICKER NOW APCHG
PAC NW COAST. PCPN CHCS WL INCRS LATE TNGT/SAT AS THIS SYS EJECTS
ENEWD ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

COOLISH ENELY LO LVL FLO WL PRVL ACRS CNTRL/SERN KS TODAY WITH MOIST
H8/BNDRY LYR KEEPING SKIES GENLY OVC THRU THE DAY. XPCT MAINLY OCNL
DRZL THIS MRNG, WITH SHWR/CNVTV CHCS INCRSG INTO THE AFTN. LTL DIURNAL
RISE XPCTD IN TEMPS, WITH MAXS CLOSE TO GOING FCST.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL DVLP ACRS THE AREA TNGT/SAT MRNG, IN
DIFLUENT UPR FLO REGIME AS SYS BEGINS TO LIFT TWD THE HIGH PLAINS.
DESPITE MRGNL ELEVATED INSTBY THE STG VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CONT
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS LOW TRANSLATES EWD ACRS
THE PLAINS INTO SAT. FCST AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAFL AMOUNTS
WL AVG AROUND ONE INCH ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH CNVTN ENHANCING
QPF TOTALS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED 1.5 TO 2 INCH RAFL AMOUNTS TNGT
THRU SAT. ANTECEDENT RAFL OVR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS LOWERED
FFG VALUES ACRS MOST OF SCNTRL/SERN KS, HOWEVER XPCTD RAFL SHOULD
GENLY NOT EXCEED FFG, THOUGH 6HRLY VALUES MAY BE APCHD IN LOCAL
AREAS WITH ISOLD/STGR CNVTN. THIS SAID, FCST COORD/CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON ANY FFA FOR NOW. SINCE BULK OF QPF WL BE
LATE 2ND/3RD PD EVENT, DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS LATER DATA AND STILL
GET SOME LEAD TIME IF CONDS APPEAR MORE CONCLUSIVE ON A MORE
WIDESPREAD HVY RAFL.

STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO TIMING AND FASHION IN WHICH UPR SYS WL
LIFT OUT ACRS THE AREA SAT AFTN/NGT, MOST NOTEABLY WITH SFC FNT
AND POTNL FOR SERN KS TO REALIZE MORE THE UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
LATE SAT AFTN. THIS COULD RESULT IN INCRSD SVR POTNL FOR AREAS E
OF THE TURNPIKE. LATER SHIFTS WL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SLGT WINDOW/POTNL FOR ERN PTNS OF THE CWA.

NO BIG CHGS PLANNED TO FCST BEYOND SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WL CONT
TO SHOW DRIER/MILD REGIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEEKEND LOW PHASES
WITH NRN STREAM AND RESULTS IN DVLPG LNGWV TROF FM THE GRTLKS TO
THE LWR OH VLY.

DARMOFAL

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         58  51  62  46 /  60  90  90  30
HUTCHINSON      57  49  60  44 /  60  90  90  30
NEWTON          57  50  61  45 /  60  90  90  30
ELDORADO        58  52  63  47 /  60  90  90  40
STROTHER FIELD  62  54  65  48 /  70  90  90  40
RUSSELL         53  45  56  41 /  70  90  90  20
GREAT BEND      53  46  57  42 /  70  90  90  20
SALINA          58  49  59  45 /  50  90  90  30
MCPHERSON       57  49  59  45 /  50  90  90  30
COFFEYVILLE     62  55  67  51 /  70  90  90  50
CHANUTE         60  53  65  49 /  60  90  90  50
IOLA            60  52  64  48 /  60  90  90  50
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

13/DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
527 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
527 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, HOWEVER THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, MAINLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SMALL AND
MAINLY FOR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED