Funnel Cloud in Tennessee, May 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ERODE THIS EVENING. HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD ALSO WANE OVERNIGHT. DP BOUNDARY WELL WEST OF
AREA AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN LATE WITH DECREASING CLOUDS SO FOG FORMATION LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD BET WITH THE DPS REMAINING SO HIGH. TUE...SFC RIDGING BRIEFLY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR A GOOD AFTN
WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) THROUGH MID WEEK...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THIS WILL PUT THE MRX CWA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.  DYNAMICS AND ATTACHED MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE UPPER
LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIP.  A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABILE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA, TN   60  86  61  83 /  10  10  20  20
KNOXVILLE, TN     59  84  61  81 /  10  10  20  20
BRISTOL, TN       53  82  54  76 /  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN     58  85  60  79 /  10  10  20  20

&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SOM/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-311000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
600 AM EDT (500 AM CDT) SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A LARGE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
402 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WISE               37.01N 82.54W
05/30/2004                   WISE               VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A LARGE TREE DOWNED ACROSS DOTSON CREEK ROAD.

&&

FEF