Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kentucky, May 30 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY HAVE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MCC FORMED ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE TOWARDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR TRAINING CELLS. SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES HAVE BEEN PUTTING DOWN
RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARM FRONT...A S/W IS LIFTING OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN TENN...BUT IS
SLIDING MORE EAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FIRING IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO S/W. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING MECHANISMS RELAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWER TONIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT
BEST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WITH SLOWER TIMING...LINE OF STORMS
WILL HAVE TO PUSH A LONG WAY AND MAINTAIN. WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
OUT THERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE COMING IN MORE WET ADIABATIC. STILL HEALTHY WIND
PROFILE COULD MAKE UP FOR THIS. IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WIND WOULD
BE THE STRONGER THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WETBULBS OF 13K ADVERTISED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE QUITE A TALL CORE FROM A
STORM. VEERING PROFILE AND PROGGED 0-3 KM HELICITIES IN THE 200-250
RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY. WITH LESS OF A THREAT PREDICTED BY SPC...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH STRONG STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND SAVED THE SEVERE DETAILS
FOR THE HWO. FLASH FLOODING STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONCERN WITH SOME
TRAINING CELLS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND CORRESPONDINGLY PRODUCES HIGHLY ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF
QPF. LIKE THE TAKE ON THE ETA BETTER...AS SOME DIGGING INTO THE GFS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVEALS SOME QUESTIONABLE OUTCOMES.
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLOWER
TIMING...MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL AT
LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING. CHANGED VERY LITTLE OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST PACKAGE FROM 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSIONS...

951 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING.  WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH FROM
TN WILL EXPECT MILDER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THE
EARLIEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.  TO
THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT PRECIP MORE TOWARDS MORNING AND WITH WARM
FRONT JUST ARRIVING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO SPLIT SOME.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

530 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. DESTABILIZATION ON SUNDAY WILL ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...BUT AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST...WILL EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL FOR A WHILE. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH...ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TO OUR
WEST...SO THE STORMS COULD VERY WELL BE WEAKENING AS THEY ARRIVE.

DRIER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISSOLVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
MONDAY...AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF.

AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIP CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO
BE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. EXPECTING A WEAKER SECONDARY FRONT ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WOULD BE LIMITED. LATE WEEK SEEMS
UNCERTAIN AS WELL...WITH THE GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW OUR DIRECTION
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IN THAT TIME
FRAME IS LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....NONE.

&&

GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
555 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-311100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
555 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE SEVERE EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES.
AGAIN...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

GEOGERIAN