Flood in South Carolina, February 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1146 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A WEATHER EVENT ONGOING ACROSS THE CWFA. WILL ALLOW THE WSW
AND NPW TO EXPIRE. FFA WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING. WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES IN THE NC MTNS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SFC OBS SHOW WEDGE HOLDING ON ACROSS THE CWFA...BUT ERODING FROM THE
EDGES. LATEST RUC AND 12Z ETA SHOW THE WEDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME EROSION...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE ALTERED AFT WIND AND HIGH TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS
WARMING AND NELY FLOW...XCPT SRN CWFA BORDER WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND WARMING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE EROSION. HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING
AND WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE...LIFT AND PRECIP FCST FFA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS IS. ALTHOUGH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY.

NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR TSRA THIS AFT. SFC OBS SHOW VERY STRONG
TMB SETTING UP NEAR THE SRN CWFA BORDER. MIDLANDS TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 70S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER OUR CWFA. LATEST RUC AND 12Z
ETA SHOW TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING NE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST KFFC RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME INTERESTING ECHOES
MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA. GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE TMB WHERE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LIE. IF THE MESO
LOW MOVES THRU AS FCST...THIS WILL JUST INCREASE THE SVR CHC. OF
COURSE ANY MOVEMENT IN THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THE SVR THREAT. WILL
UPDATE SPS TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

EVEN WITH ALL THIS GOING ON...DECIDED TO HOIST WSW FOR THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT AND SAT NITE. LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THIS AREA. DEEP LAYER RH...COMBINED WITH STRONG
NWLY FLOW...STRONG CAA...DEEP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU ALL INDICATE MORE THAN THE USUAL NW FLOW
SITUATION. ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING MAY BE NEEDED CLOSER TO THE BLUE
RIDGE AS WELL. CAN DECIDE IF EXTENSION IS NEEDED LATER...BUT WANTED
TO GET SOME LEAD TIME ON THIS EVENT.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
     WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
     NCZ033-048>052-058.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

RWH

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