Ice Storm in North Carolina, February 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1108 PM EST THU FEB 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ON SECOND THOUGHT...RADAR RETURNS BECOMING QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION HAS EXHIBITED A DISTINCT BANDED STRUCTURE
ALL EVENING...COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF EPV<0 WITHIN THE MOIST
UPGLIDE REGION. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...RADAR RETURNS
HAVE INTENSIFIED...WHILE NORTHERN FOOTHILL OBSERVATION SITES
CONTINUE LOCKED IN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. STILL ANTICIPATE THE WEDGE
WILL ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE SIDES AND FROM THE TOP DOWN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS MEANS THAT THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS WILL BE THE
LAST AREA TO BEGIN TO WARM...AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 33 58 36 51 / 80 90 50 10
AND 34 60 37 52 / 70 99 40 10
CLT 37 59 41 52 / 70 90 60 00
HKY 31 55 37 47 / 80 90 60 10
AVL 31 53 31 40 / 90 99 40 10
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
     GAZ010...GAZ017>018...GAZ026...GAZ028>029.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
     NCZ033>037...NCZ048>059...NCZ062>072...NCZ082.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
     NCZ033-036>037-049-050-053-064>067.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
     NCZ034-035-NCZ054>056
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
     SCZ001>014...SCZ019.
&&

LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-051308-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
648 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...HOWEVER...BY AROUND NOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CAESPSGSP...FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WILL LIFT MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ENHANCING RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING TO THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEAVING 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ITS WAKE. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE NORTHERN UPSTATE FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...CAEFFAGSP. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO EAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COOL MOIST AIR
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CAESPSGSP...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ABOUT WINDS...SEVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SNOWFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

NED

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 PM EST THU FEB 5 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-061100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1004 PM EST THU FEB 5 2004

...WINDY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN QUITE
STABLE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY ON WILL BE TO
BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY
DAYBREAK.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE COLD STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TO BE REPLACED BY WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE
SOUTH. WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE WEST APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT...AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY...WILL COMTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...OR
ISOLATED WEAK TORNDADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE IN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM THE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINFALL TO KNOCK DOWN TREES.

COMMUNICATION CENTERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE
AWARE OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER AND WIND THREAT. SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE
ACTIVATED DURING FRIDAY.

GERAPETRITIS