Debris Flow in Puerto Rico, March 29, 2004

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON MAR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE LOCALLY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF LOW
LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH WESTERLIES CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND A
SERIES OR SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO AT LEAST CLIP THE FA. WE STILL
NEED TO WATCH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST...DEEP UPSTREAM 500 MB
LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...ACTUALLY
MAKES IT BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT TO THE EAST. FORECAST WAS BASED ON
GFS MODEL SOLUTION...BUT IF SYSTEM MOVES A LOT CLOSER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WEATHER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COULD BE MUCH
WORSE. STILL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SATURATE SOME
LOCAL SOILS AND CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS...SUCH AS THE RIO CIBUCO...
RIO GRANDE DE MANATI AND THE RIO LA PLATA TO RISE. STILL EXPECT AT
LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND RIVER FLOODING TO CONTINUE TO BECOME A
PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  84  72 /  40  50  40  50
STT  83  73  83  73 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ710.
VI...SCA AMZ710.

&&

SEELEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON MAR 29 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-301000-
630 AM AST MON MAR 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY...AND WILL LEAVE RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THIS COULD THEREFORE LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF THE PAST DAYS HAS LEAD TO AREAS WERE SOILS ARE
NEAR SATURATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES...
WHERE RIVER RISES WILL AGAIN BE SIGNIFICANT TODAY AND MAY LEAD TO
EVENING AND NIGHT TIME RIVER FLOODING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COASTAL SURF ZONES AS
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
MARINE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WET AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL
AFFECT OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-301000-
630 AM AST MON MAR 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY.SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT TIMES WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS...GUTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
MARINE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WET AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.