Hail in Kansas, March 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS ERN KS...FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL
RECEIVED. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN DURING AFTN...EXPECT TO
SEE CONVECTION INCREASE OVER FAR ERN KS...AND SECOND AREA TO
DEVELOP OVER CTRL KS WITH NEXT WAVE.  COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR SEEN ON PROFILERS (ESP
HAVILAND) SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.  ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS.  MONITORING
SITUATION.

FOR NOW...WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCLUDE LOW POPS IN WRNMOST
COUNTIES...AND INCREASE POPS A BIT IN SE ZONES DUE TO GREATER
ANTICIPATED COVERAGE.  REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

WOLF

----------------------------------------------
905 AM CST MON MAR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE

12Z RAOB DATA SHOW COLD POOL MOVING SE OVER NEBRASKA/NRN KS THIS
MORNING.  500MB/700MB TEMPS DOWN TO -32C/-11C ON LBF SOUNDING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VORT CENTER MOVING SSE ABOUT 45 KTS OVR
WCTRL NEBRASKA...SHOULD CONTINUE OVER NCTRL KS BY MIDDAY AND ECTRL
KS THIS AFTN.  NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME
LIFT WITH FEATURE...EVEN SFC TEMP/DWPT OF 60/40 YIELDS CAPE OF 500
TO 700 J/KG...AND...CAPE IS SHALLOW AND FAT...SUPPORTING OF SOME
HAILERS THIS AFTN.  MOISTURE IN AIRMASS NOT GREAT...BUT CONDITIONS
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH HAIL THIS AFTN.
DONT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SUBSTANTIAL...SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS.
FOCUSING MAINLY E OF A RUSSELL-HUTCHINSON LINE.

IN ADDITION TO FORECAST UPDATE...WILL UPDATE HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL
POTENTIAL.

WOLF

-------------------------------------------------------------------
350 AM CST MON MAR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY:
SCT -RA OCRG OVER CNTRL KS ASSOCD W/ WEAK 700-MB S/WV &
WELL-DEFINED 500-MB COLD POOL VENTURING IN SE MANNER ACRS CNTRL KS
EARLY THIS MRNG. W/ ULTRA-STEEP LAPSE RATES RSLTG ASSIGNED 15-20%
POPS TO AREAS ALONG NE CORRIDOR. INHERITED MAXES (LWR 60S) APR
KOSHER.

TNGT:
ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR PAT DOMINATES W/ UPR RIDGE OF MT. EVEREST
PRO- PORTIONS COVERING WRN 1/3 U.S. W/ CUT-OFF LOW POSITIONED OVER
IA. DEEP NLY FLOW COUPLED W/ WRAP-ARND MSTR (SPCLY OVER ERN KS) SHUD
LIMIT MINS TO MID/UPR 30S AS PREVLY FCST.

TUE-THU NGT:
SGFNT CHGS MADE THESE PERIODS, PRIMARILY TEMPS. W/ ULTRA-HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPR PAT DOMINANT, AM FAVORING ECMWF SOLN (FAR LESS
PROGRESSIVE) WHICH TRANSLATES INTO MUCH COOLER AIR INFILTRATING
CNTRL & ERN KS. TEMPTED TO RUN DRY FCST THU NGT, BUT CONCEIVABLE
THAT GULF MSTR MAY CLIP SW SECTOR OF CWA & THEREFORE ASSIGNED
GENERIC 20-30% THIS AREA.

FRI-SUN:
NO SGFNT CHGS MADE THIS PERIOD PENDING TODAYS & TNGTS MODEL RUNS
TO SEE HOW EACH HANDLES THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE PAT.
ES

ISC: DDC, SGF, TOP.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         63  37  57  31 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  37  57  31 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  36  56  30 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  37  55  31 /  10   0   0   0
STROTHER FIELD  64  38  57  32 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  35  59  28 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      65  36  59  30 /   5   0   0   0
SALINA          62  35  55  28 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  36  56  30 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  38  55  33 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  37  54  32 /  20   0   0   0
IOLA            61  36  54  32 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

4/ES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
920 AM CST MON MAR 29 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
920 AM CST MON MAR 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CREATE A
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SMALL HAIL FROM THE STORMS.
IN ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING MAY ADD TO THE INSTABILITY...MAKING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL OCCURRENCES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

WOLF