Damaging Winds and Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico, June 28, 2004

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 PM AST MON JUN 28 2004

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH HAZE
ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON TO COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO
BOTH...TO REDUCE THE CLOUDS AND POPS IN MOST ZONES AND TO FRESHEN
WORDING. FOR COASTAL WATERS...MADE A FEW ALTERATIONS TO PREVIOUS
CWF...MAINLY TO INCREASE 1ST PERIOD WIND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. WE
NOW HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE
WATERS AND ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT
CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS./ BCS

.PREV SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST
NORTHWEST AND WAS NEAR 69.5 WEST AT 09Z...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WITH AND TRAILING WAVE...AND STILL SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO. TUTT
HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTHWEST PAST 24 HOURS WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...ACTING TO VENT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AN ESE LLVL FLOW BEHIND THE
WAVE OVERNIGHT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BACK MORE EASTERLY ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHERE OROGRAPHIC AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
DOMINATE. DIURNAL FORCING ACROSS W AND NW INTERIOR P.R. TODAY SHOULD
YIELD EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE...AND THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCH RAIN TOTALS. A CONTINUED DRYING TREND
IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT WITH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AS
CLEAR...STABLE...AND HAZY AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK...BUT MORE STABLE
AND GENERALLY HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON
STRONG EFFECTS FROM A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WED-THU AND IS NOW
KEEPING THIS FEATURE TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR A MILD SUBSIDENT PATTERN
ALOFT. HOWEVER...BY WEEKS END...ANOTHER TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP
FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTH INTO HISPANIOLA AND COULD DESTABILIZE THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS AND STRONG GUSTS IN TSTORMS AND
SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ABATE
TODAY...WITH A GENERAL SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND AND SEAS NEXT
FEW DAYS. HIGHEST SEAS THIS MORNING OCCURRING IN THE LOCAL SW CARIB
WATERS BEHIND WAVE AXIS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALL
CARIB WATERS THIS MORNING MAINLY DUE TO SEAS...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV HYDROLOGY...RECENT RAINFALL ESTIMATES SUGGEST MOST WIDESPREAD
AND SIGNIFICANT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF P.R. AND THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RESPOND QUICKEST TO
RAINFALL TODAY. DUE TO PERSISTENT INSTABILITY TODAY...VERY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
W AND NW INTERIOR P.R. AND DOWNWIND OF THE EL YUNQUE STREAMER LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA. URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING IS THEREFORE LIKELY ACROSS
THESE AREAS TODAY...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY METRO AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  77 /  50  40  40  30
STT  88  79  88  78 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ710-730-740.
VI...SCA AMZ710-730.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON JUN 28 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-251000-
600 AM AST MON JUN 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND
DOWN THIS MORNING...AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND LESS ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ARE USHERED IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE.  NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON
...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST.  OVER THESE
AREAS...THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE FROM YESTERDAY.  AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT MARINERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.  IN ADDITION...HAZY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATER TODAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEVERELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THAT EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TUESDAY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  OTHER THAN THE FORMATION
OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.  HOWEVER...FROM
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.  THE OVERALL
RISK OF THIS...HOWEVER...IS REDUCED.

HAZY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO AROUND FIVE
TO EIGHT STATUTE MILES...MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-251000-
600 AM AST MON JUN 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
DIMINISHING AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

HAZY CONDITIONS WILL BE RETURN ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY LIMITING
VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TUESDAY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION OF ANY
HAZARDS OF CONSEQUENCE.

HAZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PEAK ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

KIMBERLAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
137 PM AST MON JUN 28 2004

PRZ008>010-281900-
NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
WESTERN INTERIOR-
137 PM AST MON JUN 28 2004

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN
SEBASTIAN...MOCA...ANASCO AND AGUADA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45
MILES PER HOUR...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL. IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS...URBAN TYPE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

COMUNICADO ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
137 PM AST LUNES 28 DE JUNIO DE 2004

PRZ008>010-281900-
NOROESTE-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-OESTE INTERIOR-
137 PM AST LUNES 28 DE JUNIO DE 2004

UN AREA DE TRONADAS FUERTES ESTA AFECTANDO A LOS SECTORES DEL
NOROESTE DE PUERTO RICO...INCLUYENDO A LOS MUNICIPIOS DE SAN
SEBASTIAN...MOCA...ANASCO Y AGUADA. ESTAS TRONADAS SON CAPACES DE
PRODUCIR LLUVIA MUY FUERTE...VIENTOS FUERTES EN RAFAGAS HASTA CERCA
DE 45 MPH...RELAMPAGOS FRECUENTES DE NUBE A TIERRA Y GRANIZO. EN LOS
AGUACEROS MAS FUERTES...SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES DE TIPO URBANAS EN
AREAS BAJAS Y DE POBRE DRENAJE.