Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico, August 16, 2004

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1219 PM AST MON AUG 16 2004

.UPDATE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF HAZY SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS FA
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. INHERITED GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND DID NOT UPDATE. FOR COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO UPDATE SYNOPSIS DUE TO THE
DEGENERATION OF EARL...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES./ BCS

.PREV DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND THE EFFECTS ON THE LOCAL WEATHER INDUCED BY
EARL WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG. LOOKS TO ME THAT GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MOVING EARL AT A SLOWER SPEED THAN ITS REAL ONE. BASED ON THIS I AM
DECREASING WINDS A BIT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS REDUCED POPS.

&&

.PREV MARINE...MAIN EFFECTS FROM EARL WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS MAINLY
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERATED BY EARL IN ITS TRACK SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASE ASSOCIATED TO EARL...SEEMS TO ME ITS
RAPID MOVEMENT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SEAS.
I ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGEST BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED TO EARL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV AVIATION...WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAY
BE SEVERE TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM EARL MOVES RAPIDLY WESTWARD. EVEN
IF EARL LOSES STRENGTH AND IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION OR WAVE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  50
STT  87  78  88  78 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ710...730 AND 740.
VI...SCA AMZ710 AND 730.

&&

RIVERA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-171000-
600 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PERIPHERAL EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EARL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY...AS IT QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY
FROM OUR REGION. MORNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING THE EASTERN INTERIOR.  AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO A MINIMUM.  AS IS TYPICAL...THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE WEST
COAST UNDER AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW.  THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.

HAZY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AS EARL MOVES OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE OBSCURATION OF THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC NEAR AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEGINNING TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORESEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.  HAZE COULD CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY OBSCURE THE SKY AND
RADICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.  SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON COULD
FORM OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND...AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-171000-
600 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PERIPHERAL EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EARL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY...AS IT QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY
FROM OUR REGION. SCATTERED...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AROUND THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY AFTERNOON.  NO POTENTIAL...ADVERSE
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORESEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.  HAZE COULD CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY OBSCURE THE SKY AND
RADICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.