Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, August 16, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERNS...
CNVTV CHCS/TRENDS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK...

CNVTN CONTS TO PERCOLATE UNDER MIV LVL SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE CWA.
WL KEEP SLGT CHC ACRS PTNS OF SRN/ERN CWA THIS EVENING, AS FEATURE
CONTS TO MIGRATE SEWD. WL ALSO KEEP SLGT CHC ACRS THE NRN CWA TNGT,
WHERE CNVGNC ALG SFC FNT MAY PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A FEW STMS. OTHRWS
GENLY WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO FOR THE MID-WEEK PD, BFR DEEPENING
CANADIAN VORTEX DROPS SWD AGAIN ACRS THE HUDSON BAY RGN SENDING
COOLER WX SWD INTO THE MDWST/PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR TUE/WED...WK SFC FNT WL SLOW AS IT MOVS INTO KS TNGT/TUE, AND
PERHAPS GETTING AS FAR S AS HWY 56 TUE MRNG, WITH MEAN SLY LO LVL
FLO AGAIN DVLPG ACRS THE AREA DURG THE AFTN. FOCUS FOR CVNTN SHOULD
STAY MAINLY N OF THE CWA, NEAR WK BNDRY, INTO MIDDAY WED WITH LO LVL
AIRMASS CONTG TO WARM IN SSWLY MEAN LO LVL FLO. TEMPS GENLY GOING
AOA CLIMO FOR A CHG, WITH HIGHS TOPPING 90F ACRS MOST AREAS, WARMEST
CNTRL KS ON WED AFTN.

FIRST SGFNT UPR TROF WL ROTATE S/EWD ARND CANADIAN UPR LOW WED
NGT/THU, SENDING SHALLOW SFC CDFNT SWD TWD THE RGN. THIS IN COMBO
WITH ADTNL SHRTWV ENERGY TRAVERSING EWD FM THE ROCKIES WL PROMOTE
INCRSG LIFT/CNVGNC ALG SWD MOVG FNT FOR SCT CNVTN ACRS THE CWA. WL
KEEP CHCS FOR PCPN IN THE FCST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TREND
TWD COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN, AS DEEPENING VORTEX/LNGWV TROF
ACRS ERN CANADA/GRTLKS WL LKLY PUSH SUCCESSIVE FNTS INTO THE AREA,
REINFORCING COOLER THAN NORMAL REGIME. ADTNL SHRTWVS FM THE ROCKIES
MAY PROVIDE SLGT CHCS FOR PCPN AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY SAT, BFR MEAN
LNGWV TROF AXIS SHIFTS E OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND
TREND TWD DRIER SCENARIO.

DARMOFAL

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  90  67  93 /  10   5  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  91  66  94 /  10   5  10  10
NEWTON          64  90  66  93 /  10   5  10  10
ELDORADO        65  89  67  92 /  10   5  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  91  67  94 /  20   5  10   5
RUSSELL         63  91  66  94 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      63  91  66  94 /  10   5  10  20
SALINA          66  92  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  91  66  94 /  20   5  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  89  66  92 /  20  10  10   5
CHANUTE         65  89  66  92 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            65  89  66  92 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

13/DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
344 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-171200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
344 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THERE
ALSO IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. ANY STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED