Debris Flow and Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico, August 16, 2004

Name: Debris Flow and Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico, August 16, 2004
Start: 2004-08-16T13:56
End: 2004-08-16T15:20
Location: Puerto Rico

August 16, 2004 · NWS SJU · 4 events in 1 county or zone

3 heavy rain, 1 debris flow, as filed by the National Weather Service.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 12:19 PM AST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 12:19 PM AST, 1 hour 37 minutes before

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1219 PM AST MON AUG 16 2004

.UPDATE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF HAZY SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS FA
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. INHERITED GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND DID NOT UPDATE. FOR COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO UPDATE SYNOPSIS DUE TO THE
DEGENERATION OF EARL...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES./ BCS

.PREV DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND THE EFFECTS ON THE LOCAL WEATHER INDUCED BY
EARL WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG. LOOKS TO ME THAT GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MOVING EARL AT A SLOWER SPEED THAN ITS REAL ONE. BASED ON THIS I AM
DECREASING WINDS A BIT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS REDUCED POPS.

&&

.PREV MARINE...MAIN EFFECTS FROM EARL WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS MAINLY
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERATED BY EARL IN ITS TRACK SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASE ASSOCIATED TO EARL...SEEMS TO ME ITS
RAPID MOVEMENT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SEAS.
I ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGEST BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED TO EARL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV AVIATION...WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAY
BE SEVERE TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM EARL MOVES RAPIDLY WESTWARD. EVEN
IF EARL LOSES STRENGTH AND IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION OR WAVE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  50
STT  87  78  88  78 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ710...730 AND 740.
VI...SCA AMZ710 AND 730.

&&

RIVERA

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 16, 6:00 AM AST, 7 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-171000-
600 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PERIPHERAL EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EARL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY...AS IT QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY
FROM OUR REGION. MORNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING THE EASTERN INTERIOR.  AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO A MINIMUM.  AS IS TYPICAL...THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE WEST
COAST UNDER AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW.  THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.

HAZY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AS EARL MOVES OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE OBSCURATION OF THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC NEAR AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEGINNING TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORESEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.  HAZE COULD CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY OBSCURE THE SKY AND
RADICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.  SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON COULD
FORM OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND...AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-171000-
600 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PERIPHERAL EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EARL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY...AS IT QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY
FROM OUR REGION. SCATTERED...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AROUND THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY AFTERNOON.  NO POTENTIAL...ADVERSE
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORESEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.  HAZE COULD CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY OBSCURE THE SKY AND
RADICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

Event by event

3 heavy rain, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Mayaguez and Vicinity

When: August 16, 1:56 PM AST
Where: Mayaguez and Vicinity County, Mayaguez
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER

Several damage reports were received...landslide and urban flooding at Parcelas Soledad, four fallen trees at Barrio El Mani, car flooded at Western Plaza, Highway 2 flooded in front of Western Plaza, Sabanetas and Rosado Baez Schools at Barrio El Mani flooded. Fallen tree along road 3349 at Barrio Las Mesas. Road 64 at Barrio El Mani flooded. Highway 2 in front of Mayaguez Terrace flooded.

Debris Flow, Mayaguez and Vicinity

When: August 16, 1:59 PM AST
Where: Mayaguez and Vicinity forecast zone
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER

A landslide was reported in the municipality of Añasco.

Heavy Rain, Mayaguez and Vicinity

When: August 16, 2:00 PM AST
Where: Mayaguez and Vicinity County, Mayaguez
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER

Urban flooding was reported along Highway 2 near PepBoy's. A fallen tree was reported over a house at El Mani sector.

Heavy Rain, Mayaguez and Vicinity

When: August 16, 3:20 PM AST
Where: Mayaguez and Vicinity County, Mayaguez
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER

McKinley and Mendez Vigo streets were reported partially flooded. The Tras Talleres sector was reported flooded.

What these are

Heavy Rain: Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
Debris Flow: A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Puerto Rico, August 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5419906, 5419903, 5419904, 5419905.