Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

ISOLATED STORM IS DEVELOPING IN CHOCTAW COUNTY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COVNERGENCE LINE.  TORNADO PARAMATERS ARE FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THIS
CELL.  IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT MOVES TOWARD
PUSHMATAHA COUNTY.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY...

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 2500 TO
3000 J/KG.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF VINITA TO WAGONER TO
HENRYETTA AT THE TIME OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL THEN SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.  MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE FRONT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-057-058-062-063-067>076-
310000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OTTAWA OK-
PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON AR-
1100 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 330 IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

A COLD WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY NEAR A TULSA...OKEMAH...DAVIS LINE.  A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SPREADING
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
CARROLL...MADISON...FRANKLIN...SEBASTIAN AND LE FLORE COUNTIES.