High Wind in Montana, March 7, 2004

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MONTANA
941 AM MST SUN MAR 7 2004

WILL UPDATE ZONE AND STATE FORECASTS

UPDATE TO TODAY...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING PACKAGE.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST
700 MB WINDS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A SECOND MAXIMA COMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS ALREADY VERIFIED OVER MANY AREAS...AND WILL LET IT
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHINOOK ARCH. THINK IT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
ITSELF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
CLOUDINESS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TRENDS. SCHAUMANN

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...WHILE IT WILL BE NOT QUITE AS WINDY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TODAY. A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES...AS A CHINOOK ARCH IS FORMING FROM GREAT
FALLS...NORTH INTO CANADA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 65
AND 75 KNOTS ON ETA BUFKIT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR MID
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HAVRE
AREA...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF THE PRECIP
FROM HITTING THE GROUND...THEREFORE WENT WITH DRY FORECAST OVER THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS LIKELY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT...NEAR THE DIVIDE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB QUICKLY TODAY. MOST AREAS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION...AS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AS GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE MORNING...THEN START TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BRING WARMER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS REESTABLISH THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY.
THIS HOLDS THE PROMISE OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. PREWITT

&&

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NB 053/039 060/038 056 17000
    NUBBB 030/050 031/056 033/048 028/046 029 00000000000
CTB NB 050/039 060/038 054 17000
    NBBBB 028/048 026/052 029/043 026/044 027 00000000000
HLN NB 048/033 056/033 054 17000
    BBBBB 028/049 022/051 026/048 025/045 026 02000000000
BZN EB 045/028 054/022 050 17000
    BBBBB 020/049 017/046 021/045 021/043 022 01000000000
WEY EB 035/012 041/014 040 17010
    BBEBB 009/039 008/036 012/037 015/034 016 01-011-0010
DLN EB 048/029 053/029 053 17000
    BBEEB 025/050 022/049 026/045 024/047 025 02-00000010
HVR NB 049/033 057/031 053 17000
    BUBBB 029/049 021/054 026/044 023/049 024 00000000000
LWT NB 049/034 056/032 053 17000
    BBBBB 027/048 024/054 028/047 024/043 025 00000000000

&&

.TFX...HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL
       MONTANA...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 AM MST SUN MAR 7 2004

MTZ009>014-044>051-081200-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN
GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND
CLARK-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
500 AM MST SUN MAR 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
AND THE HELENA VALLEY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PLEASE SEE GTFNPWTFX FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS AREA IS BEING
WATCHED FOR A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WATCH OR WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008-015-052>055-081200-
BEAVERHEAD-MADISON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
500 AM MST SUN MAR 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.