Damaging Winds in North Carolina, March 7, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR FIRE WEATHER INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 PM EST SUN MAR 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR RETURNS ARE BLOSSOMING ON MRX AND JKL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST FORCING ASSOC WITH 850 TO 500 MB
DPVA IS CENTERED MAINLY AROUND 00Z...BUT CURRENT PRECIPITATION BAND
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND ASSOC INSTABILITY
WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NRN TIER THROUGH 8 PM...AND TAPER TO SLIGHT
CHANCE WITH FROPA SOUTHWEST.

SURGE OF COLD AIR AND 1000 TO 850 MB MOISTURE WILL THEN KICK IN...
WITH WINDS COMING UP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. CONSENSUS
850 MB FLOW IS AROUND 45 KT DURING PEAK COLD ADVECTION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MIXED LAYER POTENTIALLY TAPS SOME 50 KT WINDS FOR
HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ALREADY UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS
THE NRN THREE MTN COUNTIES IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT...AND WILL
EXTEND ALL WIND PRODUCTS THROUGH MONDAY AS GRAD WILL BE SLOW TO
RELAX.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASINGLY BANK UP AGAINST THE SRN APPALACHIANS UNDER THE
STRENGTHENING ORTHOGONAL FLOW TO WRING OUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FROM MADISON TO AVERY WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS.

SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WILL NEXT DIGGING NRN STREAM SYSTEM
FOR TUE. TROUGH AXIS STAYS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT UNTIL JUST EAST
OF THE CWA TUE...AND SHARPENS UP MUCH LESS STRONGLY ON THE ETA THAN
THE GFE. STILL...CONSENSUS FAVORS AN AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WITH SOME
ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES UNDER A COLD UPPER
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME TAPPING A BETTER
MOISTURE SOURCE HOWEVER...SO ONLY CHANCE POPS WILL BE FEATURED AT
PRESENT. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500
FT...WITH SOME RA/WET SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH TOMORROW.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A
RATHER ACTIVE POLAR JET DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER SW TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIG AS DEEPLY AS ITS EARLIER
COUNTERPARTS...SO A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...ALLOWING IT TO TAP
SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE FOR A MENTIONABLE POP IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH RH AND WIND VALUES VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN ON MON
AFTN...WILL ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE UPSTATE OF SC AND FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 36 56 31 47 / 20 10 10 40
AND 35 57 32 49 / 20 10 10 40
CLT 37 54 31 46 / 20 10 10 40
HKY 35 52 30 45 / 30 10 10 40
AVL 32 47 28 40 / 40 10 20 40
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR MTNS.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR ZONES
     NCZ033...NCZ049>050.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR REMAINDER OF
     NC MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR ZONES
     NCZ033...NCZ048>050.
SC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR MTNS.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

HG/JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 AM EST SUN MAR 7 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-071244-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
545 AM EST SUN MAR 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS
THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SEE
OUR PRODUCT /CAENPWGSP/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. SEE OUR PRODUCT /CAESPSGSP/ FOR INFORMATION ON THE SNOW
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
PURPOSE OF REPORTING WIND SPEEDS AND SNOWFALL REPORTS.

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