Blizzard and Winter Storm in Michigan, January 6 to 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH AND POLAR
VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE VORT LOBE PASSING
ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS KICKING OFF SOME HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER REPORTS
UP IN HOUGHTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN AN
INCH AN HOUR WHICH IS SURPRISING CONSIDERING SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE -20S DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. NORMALLY WITH DEW POINTS LIKE
THAT...SNOWFALL INTENSITY DUE TO EVAPORATION IS LESSENED. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM THE PAS AND PICKLE LAKE TELL A DIFFERENT STORY WITH
SATURATED SOUNDINGS THROUGH 700 MB. THIS IS THE PRIMARY REASON WHY
EVEN WITH THE DRY SFC AIR...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW IS STILL
HEAVY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...LATEST MQT RADAR/SFC OBS SHOW SNOW BANDS NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES...AS
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE WNWLY. CONVERGENT BAND ON THE EASTERN LAKE
(VERY IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR) IS SLOWLY MIGRATING SWD...AND IS POISED
TO AFFECT THE PICTURED ROCKS SHORE THIS EVENING PER CURRENT TRENDS.
ETA/RUC LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS...AND HAVE THUS
FOLLOWED THEM IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT WARNING/ADVY HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE AS IS...AND HAVE SEEN
OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE KEWEENAW THROUGH THE AFTN
(35MPH GUSTS AND BLO 1/4SM IN SN/BLSN). HOWEVER...RECENT SPOTTER
CALLS CONFIRM THAT EXTREME COLD AIR WILL INDEED LIMIT SNOW GROWTH
AND RESULTANT ACCUMS. THOUGH WE SHOULD STILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES TNGT
IN GOOD CONVERGENCE AREAS...HAVE TONED DOWN AMTS BY AN INCH OR TWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FINE SNOW. OTHERWISE ALL OF THE PARAMETERS ARE IN
PLACE FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD LES...WITH HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB AND LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVY FOR THOSE COUNTIES WITHOUT
A WARNING. WIND CHILLS TODAY STRUGGLED TO WARM ABOVE 15 BELOW...SO
AWAY FROM THE LES/THICKER CLD COVER THEY SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE
EXCEEDING CRITERIA OF MINUS 25F TONIGHT. W/ SOME CLD BREAKS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH...BELIEVE GUIDANCE LOWS ARE A BIT TOO WARM...ALSO
CONSIDERING DAYTIME READINGS WHICH WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (BARELY
ABOVE ZERO IN SOME CASES).

LONG TERM...WED THROUGH FRI.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR WED AND WILL NOT DIE DOWN
UNTIL WED NIGHT. BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST EXCEPT TO INTRODUCE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. THE WIND IS ENE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T STILL GREATER THAN
17-20C...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL COME INTO PLAY AGAIN AND COULD GET
SEVERAL INCHES IN MARQUETTE OUT OF THIS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AT THIS POINT. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS WAS
IN GOING FORECAST. LAKE EFFECT WILL KEEP GOING WITH LAKE-850 MB
DELTA-T GREATER THAN 20C THROUGH WED NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...MRF/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW 500 MB PATTERN WITH A
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS FOR
12Z FRI. A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FOR SAT AND HELPS TO START FLATTENING THE 500 MB RIDGE. THIS TROUGH
THEN ENTERS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN. MRF IS THE FASTEST
MOVING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND MAY BE TOO FAST OVER ALL. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. TROUGHING THEN REMAINS FOR MON INTO TUE. CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT ABOVE SCENARIO. MRF/GFS ENSEMBLES FAIRLY SIMILAR
ALSO...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH TROUGHING
AROUND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUE
WHEN SFC RIDGING MOVES IN. SO WILL HAVE CHANCES OF SNOW UNTIL THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIZ005-009>014-085 TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
BLIZZARD WARNING MIZ001-003 TONIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ002-004-084-006-007 TONIGHT AND WED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MIZ005 TONIGHT AND WED.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

MICHELS/JKL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
441 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2004

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-071300-
ALGER-BARAGA-DELTA-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-IRON-KEWEENAW-LUCE-MARQUETTE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-ONTONAGON-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
441 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...AS WELL AS BITTER COLD WIND
CHILLS...WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHWEST UPPER
MICHIGAN AND ALONG THE PICTURED ROCKS SHORE. SEE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MQT (ALL LOWER CASE)

JKL