Strong Wind in Alaska, January 6 to 7, 2004

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
10 AM AST TUE JAN 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE PRESENT
WEATHER PATTERN BEING SO SIMILAR TO THE MARCH WINDSTORM OF 2003 FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. AT 12Z THE PABR RAOB HAD 105 KNOTS AT 300 MB.
THIS IS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS WIND EVENT. IF ONE CAN ASSUME THAT
THE 12Z GFS INITIAL PANELS ARE EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY THE POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AT 500 MB SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE ALCAN WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ALL
MODELS REVIEWED ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN INTO THE 980S NEAR BUOY 46001 BY 12Z WED WITH MONDO
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND
AND SOME EVEN INTO THE BERING SEA. THE FORECAST 850 MB COLD ADVECTION
IS EXTREME AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE ANCHORAGE RAOB AT 18Z COOLED 7C
AT 850 MB WITH NORTH WIND 27 KNOTS JUST OFF THE GROUND. WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 850 MB TEMPS WELL INTO THE -20SC ON WED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. THE STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LAST THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN GULF
COAST. COLD OUTFLOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL CAUSE LOW WIND CHILL
FOR THERE. WIND IS BEGINNING TO KICK IN ON THE ROAD SYSTEM AS OF 16Z.
THE RAMS..MM5..MESO-ETA WERE CERTAINLY BEHIND ON THE WIND ALREADY
OCCURRING PARTICULARLY AROUND PALMER. GOTTA GO. TOO MUCH GOING ON.

.AFC...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARN 101 111 131 135 145.
         WIND ADVSRY 121 125 141 171 151 155 161 181 185 191 195.
         WIND CHILL ADVSRY 101 111 131 145 145 151 155 155.
MARINE...STORM 3AC. GALES ALL ELSE EXCEPT 13 15.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 3AC 4 5AB 6AB 8.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JAN 04