Blizzard in Michigan, January 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2004

.UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES AS THEY
ARE. SO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AS WELL AS KENT...BARRY AND KALAMAZOO. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO ACTUALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND PRESS FURTHER INLAND. THE
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT AND MOISTURE PROVIDED
BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE FURTHER INLAND
PENETRATION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MAIN WEATHER FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WEST WIND OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY OUT IN OPEN COUNTRY. VISIBILITY IN
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED BELOW ONE MILE.
OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITY WILL DROP AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE. THE
POWDERY NATURE TO THE SNOW...COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL VERY
EFFECTIVELY REDUCE VISIBILITY. NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL REACH
BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WILL NOT GET
HIGH ENOUGH AND THE VISIBILITY WILL NOT REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG
ENOUGH. THEREFORE...FEEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS VERY
WARRANTED AND THE BEST WAY TO GO.

IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND KENT...BARRY AND
KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.

DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
655 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-071100-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
655 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BITTER COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE POURING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TODAY
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 15 BELOW AND CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 INCHES ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL LIKELY BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS TO THE HOLLAND...GRAND
HAVEN...MUSKEGON AND GRAND RAPIDS AREAS...WITH A NARROW EXTENSION TO
THE EAST TOWARD IONIA AND LANSING. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BITTER COLD CONDITIONS WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF US 131. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM A SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
SOUTH...THEN AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

MEADE MJS