Heavy Snow in Maine, November 5, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU MAINE
11 AM EST FRI NOV 5 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AND ACROSS NEW
BRUNSWICK ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME ALL SNOW AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND
CONTINUES HEAVY AT TIMES. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
BROUGHT UP TO WARNING CRITERIA FOR NORTHEAST MAINE AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MAINE. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS GUSTY WEST WINDS MOVE IN.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE HEADLINES & WHAT TO DO W/THEM. AFT MUCH
COLLABORATION W/GYX & HPC...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WX ADVS FOR ZONES 1>4 W/MAX
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMING TO 5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING & THIS WILL
MAINLY BE N OF CAR-PQI LINE. DECIDED TO DROP WINTER WX ADV FOR ZONES
5,6 & 10 GIVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS SO FAR BEING REPORTED. WILL ALSO
CANCEL THE WIND ADV FOR THE COAST W/SFC LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
EASTERN MAINE TODAY.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE COMING IN LINE (INCLUDING THE RUC) W/SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MAINE & BULK OF QPF SHIFTING TO THE NE THIS
MORNING & THEN EXITING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY THE AFTERNOON. WARM
AIR CONVEYOR HELPING TO INITIATE BAND OF SN ACROSS THE N & MODERATE
TO BRIEF HEAVY RAFL OVER DOWNEAST AREAS. SNFL CONFINED MAINLY
GRASSY SFCS. BLENDED HPC QPF INTO OUR GRIDS W/ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
1ST 6 HRS. RATIO ATTM RUNNING NO BETTER THAN 10:1 & GIVEN SOIL
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S & DIURNAL EFFECTS...THINKING HERE
IS THAT SNFL AMOUNTS WILL BE SUPPRESSED W/MUCH SETTLING & MELTING.
DID PUSH RASN AS FAR N AS VAN BUREN THROUGH 18Z. WENT W/BRIEF PD OF
RA FOR MLT-HUL & THEN CHGD THINGS BACK TO SN BY 20Z AS CAA TAKES
HOLD W/STORM PULLING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WE COULD THEN SEE SOME
ACCUMS TAKING HOLD THEN.

SN WINDS DOWN TO SHSN BY THE EVENING W/WRAP TAKING OVER. I DO
THINK SHSN WILL CONT OVERNIGHT ESP OVER ST. JOHN VLY & RT 11/161
CORRIDOR AS CAA STREAMS IN OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ON
BRISK NNW FLOW. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. SHSN
COME TO AN EARLY SAT MORNING AS NVA WORKS INTO THE REGION. A
VIGOROUS S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA ON SAT TRIGGERING MORE SHSN
W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MAXES TODAY & AGAIN SAT USING A BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE. ACTUALLY TOOK A MATCH GUIDANCE APCH. MINS WERE
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT BTWN ETA MOS/MAV MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ACROSS NORTHERN SITES EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SNOW MOST OF TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE AND COLD AIR FILTERS IN...EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BASICALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES. KBGR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR
IN RAIN AND FOG MOST OF THE DAY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...USED GFS FOR WINDS AND WNAWAVE FOR SEAS. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
DIMINISH. THEN AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AND INTENSIFIES
THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS LOW MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. WILL STAY CLOSE TO WNAWAVE AND BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING
     ZONES 1.3.4,5,6.
     WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THIS EVENING EVENING ZONE 2
     MARINE...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM: JAH
LONG TERM/MARINE: FOSTER
AVIATION: JAH/WOLFE
UPDATE BLOOMER/DUDA/GABRIC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1107 AM EST FRI NOV 5 2004

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-051606-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT ME-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS ME-CENTRAL WASHINGTON ME-
COASTAL HANCOCK ME-COASTAL WASHINGTON ME-INTERIOR HANCOCK ME-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
NORTHERN SOMERSET ME-NORTHERN WASHINGTON ME-NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK ME-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...BANGOR...BAR HARBOR...
BAXTER ST PARK...BLUE HILL...BROWNVILLE JUNCTION...CARIBOU...
CHERRYFIELD...CLAYTON LAKE...DANFORTH...DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...
DEXTER...DOVER-FOXCROFT...EAGLE LAKE...EASTPORT...ELLSWORTH...
ESTCOURT STATION...FORT FAIRFIELD...FORT KENT...GREENVILLE...
GUILFORD...HOULTON...HOWLAND...LIMESTONE...LINCOLN...MACHIAS...
MADAWASKA...MILLINOCKET...MOUNT KATAHDIN...NEWPORT...OLD TOWN...
PATTEN...PORTAGE...PRESQUE ISLE...RIPOGENUS...SAINT PAMPHILE...
VAN BUREN AND VANCEBORO
1107 AM EST FRI NOV 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES NORTH OF A
CARIBOU TO FORT FAIRFIELD LINE ARE EXPECTED. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE
PWMWSWCAR ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS WELL NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE THE PWMWSWCAR FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY THEIR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TD