Flash Flood and Flooding in Kentucky, May 30 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

UPDATED FOR WATCH IN OHIO

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR TWEEKS ON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY BUMPED THEM
UP TONIGHT AND DOWN A LITTLE TOMORROW PER CLOUD COVER AND PASSAGE OF
FRONT, RESPECTIVELY.

WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. INITIAL THINKING EARLIER WAS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT LOOKING AT THE IMAGES
ACROSS THE OHVLY...HAVE JUST JUMPED THIS TO SCATTERED THIS EVENING
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS RUN THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED W-E CUTOFF IN THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND WIND SHOULD PICK UP BEHIND
FRONT AS WELL DURING THE DAY.

ENOUGH SPIN NOTED IN THE WARM SECTOR ATTM THAT A LOT OF THE STORMS
ARE ROTATING AND THIS ROTATION IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN SOME
CASES. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE SPIN WILL BE NE OF FCST AREA WITH
SOME ROTATORS IN THE SW THIS EVENING. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...AMS SHOULD BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT...AND THE
TIMING FOR ADDITIONAL KICK WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS NOT THAT
FAVORABLE. AM NOT 100% ON HOW SEVERE THESE STORMS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINERS WILL DEFINITELY BE PRESENT. IN
EITHER CASE...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD AND WIND
EVENTS TONIGHT.

AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD CUT OFF FOR
QUITE A WHILE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER NRN CWA OVERNIGHT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD POOL
AND ASSOC H5 LOW IN THE SRN GTLKS.

DAYTIME HEATING ON TUES MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY
NOTED CANT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER. AM NOT PLAYING IT UP ATTM AND
ANYTHING WONT HAVE THE SUPPORT TO BE SEVERE...BUT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP DESERVES A MENTION.

GETTING GEARED FOR SVR TONIGHT...UPDATES TO FCST AND AFD SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...TORNADO WATCH ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 0Z.
KY...TORNADO WATCH ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 2Z EXCEPT CARROLL COUNTY WHICH
IS 0Z.
OH...TORNADO WATCH ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 2Z.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-300915-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT
...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT.  AS
A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED
THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-302200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOS. THE STRONGEST STORMS AT 4:45 PM EDT
WERE LOCATED IN AND AROUND THE LOUISVILLE AREA. THE LARGE AREA OF
THESE STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY THAT
ARE SOUTH OF METROPOLITAN CINCINNATI...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN OWEN
COUNTY.

FRANKS