Hail in Kansas, March 27, 2004

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON
TRACK...HOWEVER NEEDED TO ADJUST FOR SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY
ISSUES.  THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE STARTING TO
MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND STRONG WINDS...EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO SITUATION FOR INCREASING
WINDS AND SOME TIMING OF BREAKS/PRECIPITATION TRENDS. SMALL
WINDOW OF NO RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA AND WILL
PROBABLY LAST THIS MORNING. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS LULL THEN INCREASING TREND. WE ALREADY HAVE
ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
WEST...SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ALREADY INCREASING
DOWN INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE SO FAR HAVE SHOWN
WILLINGNESS TO BE DECENT STORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
CELL MOVEMENT HAS BEEN RAPIDLY NORTH...BUT ONLY SLOWLY EAST AS
FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME. ITS
GOING TO BE AWHILE BEFORE IT WORKS ACROSS THE CWFA...THUS THE
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TODAY.

THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INCIPIENT RAIN EVENT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INITIAL FCST CHALLENGE. EJECTING LEAD PIECE OF INTENSE LARGE SCALE
SW TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMING INTO SW KS ATTM W/RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF CONV CLUSTER FROM STOCKTON DOWN TO GREAT BEND IN
KS. LLJ CONTS TO RAMP IN ASSOCN/W LG SCALE HGT FALLS SPREADING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR SPEED MAX EJECTING THRU THE BASE OF UPR
TROUGH OVR NM. SO IT APPEARS TWO DISCRETE PRECIP MECHANISMS TAKING
SHAPE TDA...FOREMOST BEING LEAD TROUGH AIDED BY INTENSIFYING SPEED
MAX AS THEY EJECT NE THIS MORNING AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN ALG STRONG COLD FRONT. STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT LAST EVENING
WITHIN CONTD MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE DISCERNIBLE SVR RISK...BUT PERHAPS
SOMETHING REACHING MARGINAL STATUS POSSIBLE OVR NRN KS AND FAR SRN
NE. OTHERWISE XPC TEMPERED TEMP RECOVERY.

POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SURGE QUITE INTENSE THIS EVENING AND DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL BUT THE APPEARANCE
NOW IS IT WILL ARRIVE TOO LATE TO POSE A PROBLEM. OTHERWISE XPC
RAPID CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT.

ON SUN...UPSTREAM SLIDER DIVING DOWN WRN SIDE OF INTENSE UPR TROUGH
QUITE COLD AND EVEN W/SCOUR OF LL MSTR PLUME...ANY BIT OF SFC
HEATING COMBINED W/FAVORABLE LEFT OVR CYCLONIC WRAP ARND MSTR BODES
WELL FOR SHOWER THREAT MIDDAY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE MUCH COOLER INTO
MON.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE WEST EARLY
IN THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG 5H TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
BECOMES A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE WEATHER BY LATE WEEK. TWO MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED DAYSHIFT TREND OF ADJUSTING
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...AS RTN OF SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT WARMING ESPECIALLY AS LL MOISTURE MAKES IT UP HERE BY
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS A TOUGH ONE. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT RUN OF
GUIDANCE TO NARROW THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL SCOPE OF PRECIPITATION
BY LATE WEEK BUT LOOKS LIKE A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 5 PM CST FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...PHELPS TO FILMORE AND FURNAS TO THAYER.
.KS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 5 PM CST FOR SIX COUNTIES IN
KANSAS...PHELPS TO JEWELL AND ROOKS TO MITCHELL.

&&

LEWIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1112 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-281200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
1112 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING...THUS ENDING ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ