Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, March 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE HAS NOW MOVED INTO WESTERN NM AND HAS
MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE NE LIKE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO. LOOKING NW,
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP THE SEVERE WX
LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA IS LOCATED OVER SE WY, WESTERN NEB, AND
HAS FORCED A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS (COULD SOMEBODY
PLEASE TELL ME WHAT MONTH THIS IS AGAIN). SURFACE DRYLINE
EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NM AND MAY BE THE INITIATOR FOR
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS THE SOUTHERN WAVE INTERACTS WITH IT. FAIRLY
POTENT WAA CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WAA ACTIVITY AS THE
SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING. SO WILL BLANKET 20
POP TO COVER. 00Z MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT SLIGHTLY THRU OUR
AREA SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL THINK THAT SQ LINE WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT AS EARLY AS MID MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO BE PARALLEL TO
THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE PACIFIC FRONT
TO THE NW LATER TODAY. WITH 40-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY SC KS,
POSSIBLY WHERE THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT INTERSECT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS WILL BE MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE DOWN THERE. DMG
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY. WILL CLEAR PRECIP OUT
OF SW KS BY 9PM AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY THEN.

OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS, NO OTHER BIG CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS BY MIDWEEK.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION.  FORECAST 850 MB
TEMP FIELDS SHOW A DECENT GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO REBOUND.  HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY DOWN A
CATEGORY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 74 42 63 34 / 60 00 00 00
GCK 71 38 62 32 / 50 00 00 00
EHA 71 40 62 33 / 40 00 00 00
LBL 74 41 63 35 / 50 00 00 00
HYS 70 39 62 34 / 60 00 00 00
P28 75 47 66 38 / 60 60 00 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

LACY/GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1128 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-078>081-087>090-281200-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FORD-HODGEMAN-KIOWA-MEADE-NESS-
PAWNEE-PRATT-RUSH-STAFFORD-TREGO-
1128 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE FROM NEAR ARNOLD TO ENGLEWOOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...REACHING STAFFORD...
PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AROUND 5 PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SHEAR IS GREAT ENOUGH THAT A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 6 PM. A DRYLINE WHICH WAS NEAR A LINE
FROM UTICA TO MEADE LATE THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR
A LINE FROM STAFFORD TO MEDICINE LODGE BY 5 PM...AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE. A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 7
PM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM 1 PM THROUGH 6 PM AS THE
DRYLINE SURGES EASTWARD.

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>086-281200-
FINNEY-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-LANE-MORTON-SCOTT-SEWARD-
STANTON-STEVENS-
1128 AM CST (1028 AM MST) SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

01