Tornado and Hail in Kansas, March 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
225 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT, AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

TONIGHT:
A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE
FORMING A TRIPLE PT JUST W/SW OF S-CNTRL KS. SBCAPES AROUND 1500
COMBINED WITH HIGH LOW LVL HELICITIES SUGGEST A TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
MAIN THREAT AREA ALONG/W OF A SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE.
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR TYPE MCS OVER S-CNTRL
KS/FLINT HILLS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THE SQUALL LINE FEATURE WL THEN PROGESS
ACROSS SERN KS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS
PARTICULARLY OVER SERN KS, BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR AFFECT
RIVERS, SO NOT PLANNING A FLOOD WATCH ATTM.

SUNDAY:
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SERN KS IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS, ENDING THE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. WITH THE DEEP AND STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT STILL
MOVG EWD ACROSS KS DURG DAY, LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL STEEPEN WITH
PARTIAL SUN, CREATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SO WL RETAIN SLT CHC OF
SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HRS. HIGHS IN LOW-MID 60S LOOK ON
TARGET. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SUN NGT. WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN PLACE, PATCHY FROST PSBL IN CNTRL KS WITH LOWS IN MID 30S.

MON-FRI:
FCST AREA WL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST MON-WED. DID TRIM TEMPS DOWN MNLY IN OUR NERN COUNTIES TUES-WED
AS THEY WL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE COOLER AIR. ACCORDING TO NCEP,
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEEK. PRETTY HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS IN THE PATTERN BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE GFS TRYING TO
ADVANCE THE NEXT UPR LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS IT OFF THE BAJA COAST. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, PREFER NOT TO MAKE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THURS-SAT PERIOD, KEEPING FCST DRY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
122 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
122 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 135/I-35 CORRIDOR BY 5 PM AND AREAS
TO THE EAST AFTERWARDS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR. AS A RESULT, SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME TORNADIC AS THEY MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF A MCPHERSON, TO WICHITA, TO WELLINGTON LINE. ALTHOUGH, THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSES EAST THIS EVENING, HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.  WIDESPREAD OR RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
REGIONWIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE THE RESULT OF COLD AIR
AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.  WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE, SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA TO
WELLINGTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS
LINE THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON/COX