High Wind in Kansas, April 18, 2004

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.  ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING ALONG THE NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
WITH BIG PRESSURE FALLS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL.  REGIONAL PROFILERS REVEAL WINDS OF 50+ KTS JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND AND MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THESE WINDS SLIGHTLY. THIS
BRINGS ABOUT FIRST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY...THE STRENGTH OF WINDS.
WITH A DEEP MIXED LAYER OF 40-50 KTS WINDS IN THE LOWER 5K OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO RISE INTO THE WARNING CATEGORY ACROSS
AREA.  BASED OFF THIS WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ENTIRE FA.
SECOND PROBLEM FOR THE DAY INVOLVES THE PROGRESSION A DRYLINE
THROUGH AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CAPPED ACROSS AREA
BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  WITH STRONG DEEP AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES AND DECENT INSTABILITY...ANYTHING THAT DOES GO UP
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

UPPER WAVE THEN PUSHES EAST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDING THROUGH AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY
DARK.  SHOULD REMAIN QUIET INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...AS NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK NORTH INTO FORECAST AREA.
WITH NOSE OF LLJ ACROSS AREA AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS
AREA...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE.  ANTICIPATE THIS
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THE THREAT OF PRECIP EAST OF AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.  ONGOING FORECAST CATCHES THIS WELL AND
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY.
.KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.
&&

AWJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
537 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-191200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
537 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SURGE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME HIGHLY
UNSTABLE. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BY EVENING. BLOWING DUST ESPECIALLY NEAR NEWLY
PLOWED FIELDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POSING THE BIGGEST THREAT.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.

&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID (ALL LOWER CASE)

AWJ