High Wind in Hawaii, January 14 to 15, 2004

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
4 AM HST WED JAN 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN BRINGING STRONG WINDS..ROUGH SURF..AND RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI CONTINUES ITS
MARCH TOWARD THE ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
STRONG ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE HIGH WINDS WILL AFFECT KAUAI AND OAHU
THIS MORNING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL NEAR THE SUMMITS OF MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THOSE TWO ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SUMMITS OF MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.
IN FACT...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WINDS TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR REST OF THE ISLANDS EXCEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND TODAY. BELIEVE THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO POP UP IN KAUAI VICINITY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TO KAUAI ONLY. THE MAIN STORM THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...THUS THE
FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AS IT REACHES MOLOKAI AND SOUTHWARD
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH IT MOVES TOO QUICKLY AND THUS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN TO PERSIST TOO LONG OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS BY
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. WINDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM
THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST CHARTS NOW HAVE THE FRONT DISSIPATED
BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS...THOUGH AM NOT SURPRISED IF THE
SOLUTION GOES THE OTHER WAY IN THE FUTURE RUNS. SHALL ONLY MENTION A
TAD MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR KAUAI MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SURF...THE SURF IS STILL ON THE DECLINE...THOUGH THE NEXT BIG SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO REACH OAHU LATE WEDNESDAY. LATEST READING FROM
BUOY ONE INDICATES THAT THE BIG SWELL HAS NOT REACHED THERE YET.
SINCE THE EXPECTED SURF HEIGHTS MORE THAN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WARNING TONIGHT...HAVE ISSUED THE WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST
SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. BELIEVE IT
MAY BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY.

&&

.HNL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 HIGH WIND WARNING......KAUAI OAHU AND SUMMITS OF MAUI AND BIG ISLAND
 HIGH SURF WARNING...NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI
                     LANAI MAUI
 WIND ADVISORY........MOLOKAI LANAI AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MAUI
 HIGH SURF ADVISORY.....NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES BIG ISLAND
 GALE WARNING...COASTAL WATERS NORTHWEST OF MOLOKAI AND ALL CHANNELS
                EXCEPT ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALENUIHAHA
                        CHANNEL.

&&

HUI