Strong Wind in California, June 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
930 AM PDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA BROUGHT A HEALTHY MARINE INTRUSION
INTO THE SJ VLY LAST NIGHT AND THE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING PROVE
IT. IN THE LOWEST 5K FT...TEMPS ARE RUNNING A GOOD 5 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO IN FAT AND BFL AND THIS TREND IS REFLECTED
WELL WITH MAX TEMPS IN OUR ZONE PKG TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...ALL
REPORTING STATIONS IN THE SIERNEV FTHLS AND MTNS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THIS MORNING. WHILE SFC PRS GRADIENTS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...THEY STILL REMAIN RATHER IMPRESSIVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 12.0
MB BETWEEN SFO AND LAS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT FORECAST ANY
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN ONSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY...THE CORE OF THE
300 MB JET WILL BECOME POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL CA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER AIR SUPPORT TO
SUSTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THRU AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF
KERN COUNTY. DURING THE PAST HOUR...SELECT RAWS SITES IN OUR KERN CO
MTNS AND DESERT HAVE BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45
MPH. THEREFORE...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 95...98 AND 99
REMAIN IN EFFECT ESSENTIALLY FROM NOON TODAY THRU 1100 PM THIS
EVENING.

LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD AND APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NR EUREKA ON CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR AS TO HOW ACTIVE OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME ACROSS CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS POSITION THE CENTER
OF THIS LOW RIGHT OVER MERCED COUNTY BY 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW
SETTLES SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HRS...COOLING ALOFT
COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT WILL PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERNEV(NORTH OF KINGS CANYON)BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE MODELS FORECAST IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT -22C...THE
300 MB JET SETTLES SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND THE MESO-ETA BRINGS A
HEALTHY VORT MAX IN FROM THE COAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. SO
THERE IS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS AT LEAST THE NRN HALF
OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. ALL THAT MIGHT BE LACKING IS THE MOISTURE
TO FEED IT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z MESO-ETA SOUNDING FOR FAT FORECASTS
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2...CAPES NEAR 335 JOULES/KG WITH A CONVECTIVE
TEMP NEAR 76 DEGREES BY 21Z WED. EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR AMPLE CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
AT LEAST THE CENTRAL SJ VLY FROM LATE MORNING ON. OTHERWISE...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WED...AND MAINLY NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY. INTERESTING TO NOTE...MODEL
QPF IS MUCH LOWER TODAY FROM YNP TO GIANT FOREST FOR WED...GENERALLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL FOR EARLY JUNE WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7K-8K FT.

WHATEVER THE CASE...BY WED NIGHT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED AS THE CENTER OF THE 50H TROF MOVES EAST OF THE STATE.
ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL RECOVER PRETTY NICELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROF BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF A DRY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE RESULTING IN RISES IN HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
MID JUNE. THE NOGAPS HOLDS ONTO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN MUCH
LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BY NEXT MONDAY (DAY
7). THE UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS INLAND WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST ON DAYS 6 AND 7. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THIS PERIOD
UNTIL THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO AFFECT
THE CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM NOON TO 1000 PM.

&&

DURFEE/DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
530 AM PDT TUE JUN 8 2004

CAZ098-099-091200-
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-

530 AM PDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON THROUGH 1100 PM. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WEATHER MESSAGE FROM HANFORD /WWUS76 KHNX/ FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ095-091200-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
530 AM PDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON THROUGH 1100 PM. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WEATHER MESSAGE FROM HANFORD /WWUS76 KHNX/ FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ089>094-096-097-091200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
530 AM PDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

PEJ