Flash Flood in Minnesota, June 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.UPDATE...KARX RADAR SHOWING SOME ECHO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN MN
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS RIGHT ON THE FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED FROM A KOWA-KEAU-KPBH LINE AT 23Z. WOULD EXPECT THIS
AREA TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND SHIFT EAST WITH TIME
ALONG THE FRONT AND NORTH OF IT.

AFTER LOOKING THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
BELIEVE THE 18Z ETA SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS RUN SEEMED THE BEST ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND ITS TREND
OF INCREASING THE TSRA OVERNIGHT. I THINK WE WILL HAVE SCT TSRA
THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING WHEN THE ACTIVITY OVER NWRN IOWA MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
CONVERGENCE INCREASES INTO THE FRONTAL POSITION.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND STILL DO NOT BELIEVE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE WIDESPREAD. INITIAL CELL DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE
THE MOST THREAT FOR SEVERE LIMITS. MAINLY A RAIN PRODUCER AND NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE
MID-LATE EVENING. BY 3 AM...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSRA ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

BAUMGARDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-091100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
654 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

EARLY THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF DODGE
CENTER MINNESOTA TO EAU CLAIRE...TO NORTH OF MEDFORD WISCONSIN.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS ON THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA AS WELL.

BY MID-EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ABOVE THE
GROUND INCREASING...AND IN CONCERT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
IN FROM IOWA...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
INCREASE. AT BEST...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE BEST ESTIMATE WOULD BE NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA TO BE AFFECTED AFTER 8 OR 9 PM. AREAS
EAST SHOULD EXPECT LATER TIMING. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE THREATS WOULD INCLUDE ISOLATED NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE THREAT IS MAINLY NEAR THE FRONT AND
SLIGHTLY SOUTH. ALSO...SOILS REMAIN RATHER SATURATED AND RIVER
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THEREFORE...ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL POSE A
FLOODING THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE CRITERIA
STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BAUMGARDT