Winter Storm and Strong Wind in California, February 17 to 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
930 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...OTHER THAN
BAKERSFIELD ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 80 DEGREES...5 DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...THE DAYLIGHT HOURS PROVED TO BE
RATHER UNEVENTFUL. HOWEVER...THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER
THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD ENSURE MORE NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS TO COME.
LATEST WV PICS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS APPROACHING
130W WITH A DISTINCT FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
WELL SOUTH OF THE TROPIC OF CANCER. BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND 34N/125W WHICH HAS HELPED INDUCE CLOUD TOP COOLING AND
PRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT OVER A RATHER LARGE AREA FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA SOUTHWESTWARD ALMOST 400 MILES. DYNAMICS HAVE
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS IN
THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS NOW DRIFTED INTO NORTHWEST MERCED COUNTY AND EXPECT MOST OF THIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CWFA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE MORE SOUTHERLY ENHANCEMENT NOTED UPSTREAM REACHES THE
DISTRICT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INSTIGATES GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TOMORROW WILL LIKELY SHAPE UP AS AN INTERESTING DAY. PROGS KEEP THE
BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BEFORE 18Z AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONT. PROGS CONSISTENT IN BRUSHING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND -25 DEGC AT THAT TIME. STRONGEST CAA AT THE MID
LAYERS SHOULD OOZE INTO THE DISTRICT AROUND 00Z...WITH LAPSE RATES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY STEEP. THE 00Z MESOETA PROJECTS SURFACE LI/S
TO DROP TO AROUND -3 TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES REACHING
BETWEEN 400-500 J/KG. SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA VARIANTS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING ALL AFTERNOON BELOW H5. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE...SUSPECT THAT AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FURTHER. FOR EXAMPLE...TAKING THE 00Z MESOETA SOUNDING
FOR FRESNO AND INCREASING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TO 65...JUST A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE FORECASTED HIGH...BRINGS THE SBCAPE ABOVE
1000 J/KG AND THE LI DOWN TO NEARLY -5. THUS...EARLY CLEARING
TOMORROW WOULD LIKELY PRECEDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...BY LATE AFTERNOON MODELS DEPICT VIRTUALLY NO
HELICITY AS WET BULB ZEROS PLUMMET BELOW 6K FEET...SUGGESTING THAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE POWERFUL UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWFA.  THAT LEAVES THURSDAY AS BEING THE ONLY COMPLETELY DRY DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKES A BEELINE FOR THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE SUNDAY...A BRIEF
BREAK MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE PARK TO KINGS CANYON FROM 400
AM WEDNESDAY TO 600 PM WEDNESDAY.

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM SEQUOIA
PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE FROM 600 AM WEDNESDAY TO 600 PM
WEDNESDAY.

&&

BURGER/BEAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1030 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2004

CAZ089>095-098-099-181300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
1030 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ096-097-181300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
1030 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE
TO KINGS CANYON AND THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR FURTHER DETAILS SEE THE WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE...SFOWSWHNX OR WWUS46 KHNX.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.