Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ACRS NRN AND WRN
AR. A FEW STORMS ALONG THE LINE HAVE BEEN SHOWING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONT
WORKING EWD ACRS AR THRU THIS EVENING. WILL BE WATCHING FOR FURTHER
FORMATION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR TORNADIC
POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREV RUNS AND HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY CHGS TO GOING FCST DURG THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EWD ACRS THE FA.
HAVE LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING...TAPERING TO CHC POPS BEHIND FROPA
LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS STILL WANT TO TAKE THE FNT JUST S OF AR ON MON AND STALL IT
OUT INTO TUE. HAVE LEFT SOME SCTD POPS FOR MAINLY MY SRN COUNTIES
MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME. FNT BEGINS TO LIFT SLOLY BACK NWD LATE TUE
INTO WED. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE INDCG SHRA/TSRA
REFORMING N OF THE BNDRY TUE NIGHT AND WED. HAVE GONE WITH 20-30
PERCENT POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST IN UPPER FLOW AND
CARVING A TROF JUST EAST OF THE STATE THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT
OFF LOW BEYOND THE PRESENT FORECAST RANGE. THE TROF WILL KEEP
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER ARKANSAS AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR STATE. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA OR SOME PORTION OF IT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
COVERED BY THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE ABOVE
NORMAL RANGE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN MOIST AIR.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT
FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...
ARZ037>047...ARZ052>057...ARZ062>069.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR...UPDATED
1030 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. AS IT INTENSIFIES WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF ARKANSAS TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASTWARD...
APPROACHING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND NOON AND IT WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE PLOWING INTO A VERY
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS ALOFT AND OTHER FACTORS
WILL BE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL OF ARKANSAS WILL BE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. THE STORMS
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE LITTLE ROCK METROPOLITAN AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY THEY WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARKANSAS
MONDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY AND
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
IT IS LIKELY THAT SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             OMAHA                   36.46N 93.19W
05/30/2004  1.75 INCH        BOONE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

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