Heavy Snow in Alaska, November 5, 2004

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
245 AM AST FRI NOV 5 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SMALL LOW JUST W BUOY 46082 WILL DRIFT EAST BUT
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL LOW WILL MOVE E FROM THE AKPEN
TO THE NRN PANHANDLE AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN INTO NW BC
BY THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS WILL BE THE
PAYA AREA. HAVE GONE WITH SNOW ADVY FOR THEM FOR UP TO 4 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW. ELSEWHERE IN THE N...GENERALLY UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
WILL BE THE RULE FOR TODAY. OVER THE S...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS THERE.

STILL HAVE SOME RATHER LARGE SWELLS GOING ON THE OUTER WATERS.
ALSO...STILL SOME SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER OUTER WATERS AND PART OF
INNER CHANNELS. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU
TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE N CENTRAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT LOW MOVING TOWARD THE N AREA LATE TONIGHT. NCEP MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...BUT GFS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE CANADIAN MODELS ON THIS...SO LEANED TOWARD IT. STILL...AM
GOING FOR LIKELY POPS OVER THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS ALOFT...EXPECT MAINLY SNOW...BUT IT
MAY MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST ESPECIALLY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THINK GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG A
PAEL-PAJN LINE FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING SAT. PRECIP
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER SAT MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. THE SOUTH AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...AND MAY START TO
SCATTER OUT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG RANGE...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
YUKON AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING TO THE
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO MOVE NORTHEAST...
PASSING OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS TO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF
COAST STEMMING FROM A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKAN INTERIOR
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THEREFORE...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY WILL
SEND AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A BROAD MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY.

RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY...
POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE NORTH HALF INNER CHANNELS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL REDUCE THE RAINFALL
TO CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PREFERRED THE DGEX AND EUROPEAN
SOLUTIONS MOVING BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION EASTWARD AT
A SLOWER PACE THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN AT THE SAME TIME ON THE
GFS MODEL. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVY TODAY...AKZ017
MARINE...SCA...PKZ021-022-033-035-041>043-051-052