High Wind in Alaska, November 20 to 21, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST SAT NOV 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY WITH
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH A STRONG JET ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA
UNDER THIS UPPER PATTERN. OVER IN THE EAST MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH THE MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.

SURFACE...A FEW LARGE STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE ALASKAN SUBCONTINENT
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS/OCEANS. FIRST LOW IS LOCATED NEAR GAMBELL
IN THE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. NEXT MAJOR PLAYER IS THE LOW LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF ADAK RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND HEADING INTO THE BERING
SEA. ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF KAMCHATKA. IN THE EAST A FRONT IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE IS A WEAK LOW IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORIES OTHERWISE MAINLY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE AFFECTING THE
SURFACE WEATHER OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING.

MODELS...ON THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL ALL THE MAJOR PLAYERS THE
ETA/GFS/UKMET HAD A SIMILAR OUTCOME THROUGH THE 84 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. PREFER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE ETA MODEL AND WILL NUDGE
BIAS AREAS TOWARDS THE GFS. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES AND LOW POSITIONS. ON THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THE ETA HAD A
BETTER START WITH ALL THE FEATURES OVER THE GFS. MOS TEMPERATURE
PROGS WHERE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE WITH THE THREE MAJOR PRODUCTS.

FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...

COPPER RIVER BASIN...NOTHING EXCITING GOING ON IN THE BASIN THIS
MORNING WITH A GENERALLY MID TO LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK RIDING ON SUNDAY. MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE DENALI
HIGHWAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT MOVES UP WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH TURNS THE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL LOOK FOR MORE
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AGAIN MONDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF SNOW INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE BASIN AS A WHOLE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD
WITH THE CURRENT TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE BASIN.

NORTH GULF COAST/VALDEZ/CORDOVA/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...GENERALLY A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO START OUT THE FORECAST TODAY. UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUND AREA MORE ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN REGIONS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW IN THE TOWN OF VALDEZ DUE TO THE RAIN
SHADOW WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE PASS. THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FIRST 84 HOURS. THE PROBLEMS WILL BE MORE OVER IN THE
WESTERN SOUND WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. LOOKS LIKE A HEALTHY NON-SNOW
WARNING EVENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QPF VALUES AROUND 1.00 INCH OF
LIQUID POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BIGGEST PROBLEM TO NOTE FOR THE
REGION WILL BE A POSSIBLE BARRIER JET SITUATION SETTING UP FOR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT THAT GOOD WITH
THIS EVENT...WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.

KENAI PENINSULA/ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATSU...THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT
MUCH QPF ON THE MODELS FOR THE LOOKING FOR GENERALLY UNDER ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE BOWL AND NORTHERN
PENINSULA. SHORT LIVED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
WITH THE NEXT FRONT QUICKLY MOVING UP. ETA PLAYS THE EVENT AS
STANDARD DOWNSLOPE FOR THE REGION. GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME TO NOTE ANY HIGHLIGHTS. FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS THINGS DEVELOP AS THIS
EVENT PROLONGS OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS FOR
TUESDAY FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE SUS VALLEY...FOR
NOW WILL HOLD BACK.

KODIAK ISLAND/ALASKA PENINSULA...RIDGING MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT FROM THE MONSTER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL WILL APPROACH MOVE
THROUGH THE PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS REALLY GOOD
FOR A SOUTHEAST GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...HAVE THE
WARNING UP ALREADY AND ALL IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE WITH IT THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE WARMER WATERS AND SMALLER AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION HEDGED BACK ON THE WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH FOR THE COLD
BAY/SOUTHERN PENINSULA AREA. THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH THE KODIAK
REGION ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY MUCH WEAKER AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITHOUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL EXPECT THE WINDS TO
CUT OFF QUICKLY. NEXT FRONT QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE PASSING FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
REGION. STAYING ON THE MILD SIDE WILL NOT HAVE TO WORRY MUCH ABOUT
SNOW.

BRISTOL BAY/KUSKO DELTA/MCGRATH/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...RIDGING WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AS THE BERING SEA FRONT MOVES IN OVER
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNINGS FOR THE FAR WESTERN CAPES AND
COASTAL AREAS OF THE DELTA THROUGH THE CHANNELED AREAS WITH THIS
FRONT. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON MONDAY...AND THE TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. BEST NEWS IS
THAT THE COLD AIR DOESN/T GET A CHANCE TO LEAK DOWN INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE OFF AN ON
PRECIP HOWEVER NO MAJOR EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRIBILOF ISLANDS...MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP ON ADAK THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT ON ITS
WAY TO THE BERING STRAIT LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A STRONG
FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS STARTING TONIGHT. HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING
FLYING FOR THE AREA WILL CONTINUE. ALL LOOKS GOOD FOR A GOOD PERIOD
OF WARNING LEVEL GUSTS FOR THE REGION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
LACKS A MAJOR SOURCE OF COLD AIR INTO IT THEREFORE THE BACKSIDE WINDS
WILL BE QUICK TO DIMINISH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE STRING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT. MODELS
DON/T QUITE BRING THE WIND SPEEDS UP TO WARNING LEVELS AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS
WITH WINTERY PRECIPITATION WITH THESE STORM SYSTEMS.

ALEUTIAN CHAIN...MAJOR LOW MOVING UP ON ADAK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. WINDS CURRENTLY
ARE INCREASING AND SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
WITHOUT MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK WITH THE BACKSIDE WINDS...HOWEVER QUITE
STRONG SHOULD LAST AS LONG AS A NORMAL WINTER EVENT. LOOK FOR A
FASTER DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAIN. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
UPPER WAVES AROUND IT DEVELOPING STRONG SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND DRIVING THEM INTO THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM...A LITTLE
WEAKER. THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS EXPECT TO SLIDE DOWN AND COMBINE WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA...IF THIS IS THE CASE...THE
COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR COULD GET DOWN INTO THIS LOW
PRESSURE COMPLEX. THIS WILL NEED WATCHING AS IT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...155 161 181 185 191 195
MARINE...GALE...3BC 5A 13B
         STORM...5B 6AB 8 12A 12A1 12B 13A 14 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PROTON NOV 04