Flood and High Wind in Alaska, November 19, 2004

Name: Flood and High Wind in Alaska, November 19, 2004
Start: 2004-11-19T08:00
End: 2004-11-19T22:00
Location: Alaska

November 19, 2004 · NWS AFC · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A low pressure center which originated in the north Pacific Ocean moved into the southern Bering Sea on the evening of the November 18th. The low center deepened as it moved north northeast to about 75 miles east of Saint Paul on the morning of the 19th. The low center continued north, passing between Nunivak Island and St. Matthew Island during the evening of the 19th. The associated weather front moved across the Alaska Peninsula into the Southcentral Region on the morning of the 19th. Strong southeasterly winds resulted in Turnagain Arm, the Anchorage Hillside and Portage Valley. A west to southwest fetch across the Bering Sea, combined with high astronomical tide, resulted in coastal flooding across the west coast of the state.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 19, 6:00 AM AST, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 19, 6:00 AM AST, 2 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
600 AM AST FRI NOV 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAJOR LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS THE CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. AT 14Z LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS
WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. GFS/UKMET IS VERIFYING
MUCH BETTER THAN ETA WITH POSITION OF LOW BUT A BIT TOO WEAK. SO
HAVE USED GFS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECASTS BUT HAVE UPPED THE WINDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEEPER LOW. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT
AS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WRAP UP AND UPPER JET HEADING FOR THE GULF
OF ALASKA (WHILE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD IN THE BERING SEA). HIGHEST
OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WERE MAXIMUM LEVEL ADVISORY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR NUMBERS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRIBILOFS...AND
AKPENN. GENERALLY MINIMUM WIND ADVISORIES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS WESTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE ZONE WHERE HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING WITH MAX CORDOVA-ANCHORAGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED AT ABOUT 9 MB. FOR MARINE AREAS EXPECT
STORM FORCE WINDS FRO EASTERN BERING REGION AND GALES FOR THE GULF
WATERS. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PULLED NORTH TO PRODUCE RAIN ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS AND SNOW INLAND. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND GOOD DYNAMICS HAVE ISSUED HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR
ZONE 145 ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA TONIGHT.
EXPECT THESE AREAS TO RECEIVE 8 TO 16 INCHES FROM THIS STORM.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW. OTHER CONCERN
TONIGHT WAS COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTHWEST COAST AS A DECENT FETCH
OF SOUTHWEST WINDS SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. NOAA EXTRATROPICAL WATER LEVEL FORECAST PAGE INDICATES STORM
SURGE REACHING 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG KUSKOKWIM BAY. SO HAVE
ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
BETWEEN CAPE NEWENHAM AND CAPE ROMANZOF.

LITTLE TIME TO SPEND ON EXTENDED FORECAST WITH SO MUCH GOING ON IN
THE SHORT TERM. MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER BERING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWS TRACK ACROSS NORTH PACIFIC AND
HEAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN BERING OR WESTERN GULF. GFS
INDICATES NEXT MAJOR LOW APPROACHES ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. IF 12Z RUN
HOLDS ON THE PAST COUPLE RUNS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER HIGH WIND
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ZONE 155 AND 161
         BETWEEN CAPE NEWENHAM AND CAPE ROMANZOF.
MARINE...STORMS 6AB 8 12AB 12A1 14 15. GALES 5AB 13AB.

SEB NOV 04

Event by event

2 high wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When: November 19, 8:00 AM AST to 5:00 PM AST
Where: Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured: 67 kt (77 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

High Wind, Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns

When: November 19, 8:30 AM AST to 4:30 PM AST
Where: Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns forecast zone
Measured: 67 kt (77 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

Flood, Kuskokwim Delta

When: November 19, 4:00 PM AST to 10:00 PM AST
Where: Kuskokwim Delta forecast zone
Reported by: COASTAL OBSERVING STATION

What these are

High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, November 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5426900, 5426901, 5426902.