High Wind in Wyoming, January 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
159 AM MST THU JAN 30 2003

SHORT TERM...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT TODAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN THE
FLOW OVR THE CYS FORECAST AREA AND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THE
STRONG FLOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MODELS CRANK UP THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND AT 700 MB. EVEN WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY...WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR THE WIND
CORRIDOR REGION OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY. IT WILL BE WINDY
ELSEWHERE BUT THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CHINOOK WILL PRODUCE WARM TEMPS WITH 50S AND
60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK
BACKDOOR TYPE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
SHOULD VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT AND DECREASE TO LOWER
LEVELS THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP LOW POPS THIS EVENING OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING THE CWA
ITS BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD DECENT SNOWFALL IN QUITE AWHILE.
MODELS FOR THE PAST 5 TO 7 DAYS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS EVENT
WHICH GIVES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME.  THE FEATURE WAS
CURRENTLY AT 40N AND 150W.  AS IT MOVES INLAND THE ENERGY IS
SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH THE MORE ENERGETIC PORTION OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.  THE SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES SOUTH AND
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO 18Z SUNDAY.  THAT SURFACE LOW
POSITION FITS IN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 250 MB.  MODEL QPF
IS UP TO A THIRD OR HALF AN INCH IN 6 HOUR PERIODS STARTING IN THE
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.  THIS FITS IN WITH THE BEST OMEGA AND
FAVORABLE 700 MB TEMPERATURES.  AVN QPF HAS TRENDED HIGHER IN RECENT
RUNS.  UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THAT STORM SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY.  IN ADDITION IT APPEARS
THAT FRIDAY MAY AGAIN BE QUITE WINDY...BUT WITH WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN
THE SHORT TERM WILL JUST PLACE IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES.  HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LATEST GFS HAS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO
THOSE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH
AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.CYS...
WY...HI WIND WARNING TODAY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
     ZONES..62>64..66..67..69.
NE...NONE.

WEILAND

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-301300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 PM MST WED JAN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES...AS WELL AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CARBON...ALBANY...PLATTE AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES.  WEST WINDS
AT 35 TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS OF 60 MPH AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND GUSTS TO 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT THEY WILL SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.  COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STARK
WCJIN-WYSE-WYNE