Winter Storm in Virginia, December 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
845 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

CSTL LOW JUST E OF SAV NOW BCMG MAIN FTR THIS EVE. PCPN BREAKING OUT
ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT CNTYS AND HEADING N. ONLY CONCERN WITH ONGOING
FCST IS THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM RIC ON SW TO AVC. MIXED IP / FZRA
APPEARS TO BE PREDOMINATE TYPE AT ONSET ACCORDING TO SFC OBS. WRM
LYR ARND H85 SPRTG WHAT IS OCCURRING EVEN WITH A 5-10 DEGREE TMP DP
TMP SPREAD. SNDGS N & W OF RIC SPRT A MIX WITH SOME SNOW AT
ONSET...BUT THEN CHANGING OVR. INLAND TMPS TO LVL OFF AT OR JUST BLO
32...THEN INSITU WEDGE SETS UP. CRNT HEADLINES THAT ARE IN PLACE
LOOK GUD ATTM...BUT PLAN ON ISSUING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CRNT
CNDTNS AS WELL AS DOWNPLAYING ANY SGNCFNT SNOWFALL AMTS.

 FCSTID = 44

.SYNOPSIS...BRUSH W/ WINTRY WX TNGT/ERY SUN...THEN RETURN TO MR NRML
ERY/MID DEC WX FOR THE UPCOMING WK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES OVR NY STATE...WDGG SSW E OF MTNS. DPWTS
IN TEENS S INTO CNTRL VA...20S INTO NE NC. RGNL RDR SHOWING FINGER
OF SN POINTING WELL NNW OF FA TWD NW VA/WRN MD AND THRU NRN WV...AND
MOSTLY LIQUID PCPN SPRDG INTO NE GA (ICY MIX IN PARTS OF ERN TN).
ARRIVAL OF PCPN CONTG TO BE DELAYED (A TAD LNGR) BY XTNSV DRY LYR
BLO 7H AND THAT CONTS UNTIL LT EVE HRS FOR SSW PARTS OF FA...AFT
MDNGT TO THE NNE IN FA. LLVL DRY AMS RESULTS IN P-TYPE PRBLMS TNGT
FOR W AND N SXNS OF FA...W/ WORST OF THE WINTRY MIX IN CLIMO FAVORED
LCTNS FM W OF I95 THRU INTR NRN NECK VA INTO DORCHESTER CTY MD. W/ LO
PRES XPCTD TO MV NE ON THE CSTL PLN AND NOT OFFSHR...STRONGLY FAVORS
SGFNT WRMG (ESP ABV SFC) LTR TNGT THRU SUN MORNING. ICE WL RMN
CONCERN FOR FAR NW CTYS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV FRZG...ELSW...
READINGS SHUD SUFFICIENTLY RISE THRU 30S AND 40S (PSBLY EVEN 50S SE
SXNS VA/CSTL NE NC) FOR JUST LIQUID.

DECIDED TO NUDGE ADVSRY E A TAD FOR TNGT TO CVR PTNTL LGT FRZG
ACCUMS...OTRW...XPCTG 1 TO PSBLY 2 IN SN FOR AREAS WELL NW OF RIC...
MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH IN ADVSRY LCTNS. THE OTR CONCERN IS LIQUID QPF...
PTNTLLY WDSPRD 3/4 TO 1 1/4 INCH...ESP E/SE AREAS OF FA (LTR
TNGT/SUN MORNING).

SYS PULLS NE OF FA SUN AFTN...GRDL CLRG SUN NGT...THEN DRY WX MON
AND TUE. THATS IT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SCAS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LO CLDS/PCPN STARTING BTWN 00-05Z
TNGT AND CONTG INTO SUN AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLDG DN FOR NOW...WL HV TO WATCH AND SEE HOW
LATEST PCPN RND AFFECTS THE RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SBY   28  45  33  49 / 100 100  50  10
OXB   30  45  37  49 / 100 100  50  10
WAL   29  45  37  51 / 100 100  50  10
FVX   28  33  27  49 / 100 100  40   0
RIC   30  39  31  50 / 100 100  40   0
PTB   31  40  32  51 / 100 100  40   0
AKQ   34  46  34  51 / 100 100  40   0
PHF   36  48  36  51 / 100 100  40   0
ORF   37  51  38  52 / 100 100  40   0
ECG   39  54  37  54 / 100 100  40   0
&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS FENWICK ISL TO CHINCOTEAGUE.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MDZ021.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
VAZ048-049.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
VAZ060>069...072>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT VAZ070-071-079-080.
     SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS CHINCOTEAGUE TO NC/VA BORDER AND CHES BAY VA
PTRN.
NC...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS NC/VA BRDR TO CURRITUCK BCH LGT AND
CURRITUCK SND.

&&

25/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-049-060>083-085-131808-
AMELIA VA-BRUNSWICK VA-CAROLINE VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-
CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-DORCHESTER MD-ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-
GOOCHLAND VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
LANCASTER VA-LOUISA VA-LUNENBURG VA-MECKLENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-
NEW KENT VA-NORTHUMBERLAND VA-NOTTOWAY VA-POWHATAN VA-
PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-SOMERSET MD-
WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
711 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS FURTHER DETAILS BECOME AVAILABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MDZ024-025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084-086>100-131808-
ACCOMACK VA-BERTIE NC-CAMDEN NC-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHOWAN NC-
EASTERN CURRITUCK NC-GATES NC-GLOUCESTER VA-GREENSVILLE VA-
HERTFORD NC-INLAND WORCESTER MD-ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-
MARYLAND BEACHES MD-MATHEWS VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-PASQUOTANK NC-
PERQUIMANS NC-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-YORK VA-
711 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

BROWN