Hail in Texas, May 13, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

NEAR MERGER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH APPROACHING DRYLINE NOW IN NW OKLAHOMA AND SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR NEW CONVECTION TO FORM THAT WOULD AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT MEDFORD TO STILLWATER...TO HOLDENVILLE.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE DRYLINE...CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
INHIBITION INCREASES...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW IF AT ALL.

CAP IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE VEERS AND ADVECTS THE HOT
AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE RESULT MAY
BE A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH REGARD TO POPS.

AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THAT MAY BUILD WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS. 40 POPS WILL RETAINED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA FOR THIS CONCERN. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...PROBABLY CLEARING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD BY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
PROGGED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS
MOST LIKELY WEST OF THE AREA AREA DURING THESE PERIODS THAT COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THE SCENARIO BECOMES MORE
COMPLICATED BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WARRANTING POPS FOR ALL AREAS BEFORE THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

OKC   66  82  62  80 /  30  30   0   0
HBR   65  84  61  80 /  30  20   0   0
SPS   66  86  66  83 /  30  30  20   0
GAG   58  81  54  77 /  20   0   0   0
PNC   64  81  57  77 /  60  20   0   0
DUA   66  83  66  83 /  30  40  30  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
JAMES

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
DRYLINE SOUTH OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS THE
MAIN BODY OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER MID-AFTERNOON AND RANGE SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THAT THIS MORNING HAD LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
OVER MOST OF THE RISK AREA BOOSTING CAPE VALUES...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER WILL SERVE AS AN INHIBITOR TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY HELP TO START STORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE.

SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
STORMS IF STRONG SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME THE CAPPING THERMAL
INVERSION THAT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

A SECONDARY FEATURE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM MORNING STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE YET ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE MAIN OVERNIGHT THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

WR

TXZ083-084-132315-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAZARE AT 558
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY...AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PEOPLE IN FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND WATCH FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.

CMS