Dust Devil in Texas, May 13, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
151 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

AFTER TODAYS LIMITED ROUND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION INTEREST
TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  ONCE THE FRONT IS IN PLACE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE NW
CORNER OF THE THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE FRONTAL ZONE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING S-W TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES.  AS A RESULT PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD
EXPAND TOMORROW NIGHT. IF THE PRECIP IS AS WIDESPREAD AS PROGGED
INTENSIFICATION WOULD MAINTAIN/INTENSIFY THE SFC COLD POOL. IF
THE SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY THE FRONTAL POSITION WOULD BECOME
SITUATED SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THR. THUS THE SVR THREAT WOULD
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR THR AFTERNOON/EVENING. ATTM THE SRN
PORTION OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE ON THE BUBBLE.  NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY BRINGING A HEALTHY
SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA THR AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THR NIGHT.  AS ALWAYS...THE DRIVING MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
NOT BE REVEALED UNTIL THE DAY OF THE EVENT...STAY TUNED.  LATEST
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRI BEHIND
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND END FRI EVENING ONCE THE S-W TROUGH AXIS
CLEARS THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS BECOME ESTABLISHED SATURDAY ONWARD.

FCSTID = 05

AMARILLO    50 83 53 73 / 00 00 30 40
BEAVER      54 78 53 70 / 20 00 30 40
BOISE CITY  50 77 49 69 / 00 20 40 40
BORGER      51 81 53 69 / 00 00 30 40
BOYS RANCH  50 80 53 73 / 00 00 30 40
CANYON      57 82 53 76 / 00 00 30 40
CLARENDON   57 82 53 74 / 10 00 30 40
DALHART     50 80 52 71 / 00 00 40 40
GUYMON      51 79 53 70 / 00 20 30 40
HEREFORD    52 82 53 78 / 00 00 40 40
LIPSCOMB    59 80 53 70 / 20 00 30 40
PAMPA       53 81 53 71 / 00 00 30 40
SHAMROCK    57 81 54 71 / 20 00 30 40
WELLINGTON  57 81 55 75 / 20 00 30 40

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-141100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO CLARENDON TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

NUNEZ