Flash Flood and Hail in Oklahoma, May 13, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1020 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

SAT PICS AND METARS INDICATE A SOLID AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS.  RADAR SHOWS THAT THE STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...BUT THE STORMS IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG. IN BETWEEN WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

GOING FORECAST FOR THE AREA IS BASICALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THAT IT IS GOOD SO DO NOT PLAN ON
UPDATING AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...SHOULD IT BECOME EVIDENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE BETTER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY MAY UPDATE
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...

A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WAS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING. INFLUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE BY TONIGHT AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH THIS UPPER
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KANSAS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH AMPLE LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY...BUT RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA