Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, May 13, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TODAY:
ALL FACETS OF FCST TROUBLESOME WITH QSTNRY FRONT DRAPED IN W-E MANNER
ACRS CNTRL OK, COMPLICATED FURTHER BY POORLY-DEFINED FRONTAL BNDRY
DRAPED ACRS NRN KS. IN FORMER CASE, WELL-DEFINED MID-LVL S/WV
SURGING E ACRS NM TEAMING WITH INCRG LLJ, THE NOSE OF WHICH
POSITIONED OVER FAR WRN OK/SW KS, TO GENERATE FURTHER TSRA ACTION
THIS AREA. WITH PREVAILING WLY MID-LVL FLOW, THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD VENTURE ACRS XTRM SRN KS WHERE 30-40% POPS HAVE BEEN
ASSIGNED. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TIME CONVECTIVE PERIOD SO HAVE
ASSIGNED THESE POPS THRUT THIS PERIOD.

TNGT:
A BREAK IN PCPN ACTION SLATED ALL AREAS AS ERN DAKOTAS 850-MB LOW
MOVES SE TOWARD MID-MS VALLEY ALLOWING DRYING NW/N COMP TO OVERSPREAD
CNTRL KS. XTRM SC & SE KS IN PRECARIOUS POSITION IN THAT THESE AREAS
REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO ZONE OF WEAK ELY LWR-LVL FLOW THAT MAY INDUCE
ENOUGH UPSLOPE TO KEEP THESE AREAS SHROUDED IN IFR/LIFR STRATUS.

THU:
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA SLATED FOR W/SW CORRIDOR AS WELL-DEFINED
MID-LVL S/WV SCOOTS E/SE ACRS AZ & NM TO INDUCE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF SFC LOW ALONG NM/TX BDR. HAVE RE-COMMENCED SHRA
IN AFTN ACRS SC & MOST OF CNTRL KS WHERE 20-30% POPS ASSIGNED.

THU NGT-FRI:
RAINY PERIOD FOR NEARLY ALL OF CWA, SPCLY IF GFS VERIFYS. THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD SO AM LEANING
TOWARD THIS SOLN FOR POP GAMEPLAN.

FCSTID =    4
ICT   78  57  76  54 /  30   5  30  50
HUT   77  56  76  53 /  30   5  20  40
EWK   77  56  76  53 /  30   5  20  40
EQA   78  57  76  54 /  30   5  30  50
WLD   79  58  78  55 /  30   5  30  50
RSL   76  53  75  50 /  20   5  20  40
GBD   76  53  75  51 /  20   5  20  40
SLN   75  53  75  52 /  20   5  20  30
MPR   76  54  75  52 /  20   5  20  40
CFV   77  58  77  55 /  40  10  20  40
CNU   77  57  76  54 /  30   5  10  30
K88   76  57  76  53 /  30   5  10  30

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL PUSH A
DRY LINE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. FARTHER EAST, RICH MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NORTH FROM TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE
RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE,
WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG, AND EAST, OF I-135. BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
TRANSITIONING TO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT LATER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TICKETED FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS,
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING NEW MEXICO INDUCES
INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM