Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, April 18 to 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

DRYLINE IS SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY.  THERE IS A
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS AS A STRONGER UPPER TROF MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SLOSH BACK WESTWARD
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.  LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OUT BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND REDEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW ALONG VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE
AROUND.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING.  EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.

FCSTID =   26
OKC   62  76  50  68 /  80  70  60   0
HBR   57  77  49  70 /  70  50  20   0
SPS   61  81  52  73 /  60  50  20   0
GAG   52  64  43  66 /  40  70  80   0
PNC   61  69  48  65 /  60  80  80   0
DUA   63  81  55  72 /  50  70  70   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO CHEYENNE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
80S.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL.   HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE AN EXTREME TO HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  PLEASE REFER
TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HEATING AS
SKIES CLEAR.  LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

MAXWELL/SPEG