Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 18 to 19, 2003

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
825 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.***

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS OR ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWEST AND NOW COVERS
MORE OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NOW INCLUDES LUBBOCK
AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO JUST NORTH OF LUBBOCK TO
SILVERTON.  AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS.

WITH AN VIGOROUS UPPER AIR SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
APPROACHING THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE DRY LINE IS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTH THIS EVENING.  AT 8 PM...IT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM JUST
NORTH OF MIDLAND TO JUST NORTH OF SWEETWATER TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE DRY LINE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. ELSEWHERE...AN INDICATION OF THE APPROACHING INSTABILITY
...RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ECHOES
WHICH HAD MOVED FROM NEAR WINK RAPIDLY NE INTO GAINES COUNTY AT 8
PM.

LIPE

.LUB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-190500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
858 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF
BROWNFIELD TO PLAINVIEW TO SILVERTON LINE.  THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND NOW INCLUDES
LUBBOCK.

AT MID EVENING THE DRY LINE WAS PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE DRY LINE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TXZ025-026-030>032-036>038-041>044-190900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1005 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 128 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

HALL... CHILDRESS... FLOYD... MOTLEY... COTTLE... CROSBY...
DICKENS... KING... LYNN... GARZA... KENT AND STONEWALL.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS... CHILDRESS... FLOYDADA...
MATADOR... PADUCAH... CROSBYTON... SPUR... GUTHRIE... TAHOKA...
POST... JAYTON AND ASPERMONT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA.