Funnel Cloud in Oregon, October 8, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THU. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRUSH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING
RETURNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...REMAINS OF COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE HANGING UP OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN
PAC...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MOVING
INLAND NORTH OF THE DISTRICT TONIGHT...THOUGH WE DO GET INTO LOWER
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FOR LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA THU AND THU EVENING DROPPING 500 MB TEMPS TO NEAR MINUS 25
DEGREES C NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LIFTED INDICES LOW ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF TSTMS EVEN INLAND.
SNOW LEVELS MAY APPROACH THE PASSES THU NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS MAINLY
LIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE THU NIGHT AND FRI FOR MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DEVELOPING GULF OF AK STORM...FOR DRYING OVER THE DISTRICT ALTHOUGH
SOME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAY LINGER NORTHERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS PEAKED AT 39 FT AT BUOY 5 LOCATED 300 NM OFF
OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. MOST OF THE SWELL SHOULD BE DIRECTED NORTH OF
OUR COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER THE SWELL HAS ALREADY BUILT TO 20 FT AT
BUOY 29 AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.
&&

.LONG TERM...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BRUSHING
THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT BUT FOR NOW A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUFFICES. THEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING RETURNS SUN AND MON...POSSIBLY
LONGER AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND MODEL DIFFICULTIES THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SUGGEST A CHANCE
OF RAIN THE BEST BET FOR TUE AND WED. WILLIS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 775314  PDX 765211  SLE 665211 EUG 652201
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
.OR/WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
&&

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-091300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
600 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY AND BRING POSSIBLE GALE WINDS
TODAY. SEAS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 20 FT TONIGHT...AND A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEED.

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KPQR - CWFPQR FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEAS MAY EXCEED 20 FT EARLY THURSDAY AND MAY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-090530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
433 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2003

AT 4 PM PDT THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST EAST OF SALEM.
THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS COOL
AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING DUE TO RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
PATTERN CAN PRODUCE COLD CORE FUNNEL CLOUDS.

THE THREAT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-090530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
433 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2003

AT 4 PM PDT THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST EAST OF SALEM.
THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS COOL
AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING DUE TO RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
PATTERN CAN PRODUCE COLD CORE FUNNEL CLOUDS.

THE THREAT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.