Lightning Strike in Florida, October 8, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2003

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROF HAS INDEED BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE N MS VALLEY TO SE GA. WK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE
EVIDENT OVER E GA/SC. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SFC...WK RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE E
SEABOARD...WITH A COASTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM SC TO S FL. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE FINALLY THINNED OVER INTERIOR NE FL...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FIRING ALONG EDGE OF OLD FOG BANK DUE TO DIF HEATING.
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTEND FROM NR JESUP TO DOUGLAS IN RESPONSE
TO TAIL OF VORT MAX.

PUBLIC...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF TAPERING POPS THIS EVENING. THU
SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE DAY (AND...THE MOST CERTAIN PORTION OF THE
FCST) EXPECT LOW-END CHANCE TSTMS OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING
THE AFTN. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL
DAMPEN...WITH ANOTHER STRONG ONE DIGGING INTO THE SE FRI. ALTHO
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN GFS AND ETA SUITES...
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOW UP AT THE SFC. GFS CONTINUING TO
INDICATE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GOMEX IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW (AN UNUSUAL POSITION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE UPPER
PATTERN). THE ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE ATLC
COAST...NOW DUMBELLING 2 SFC LOWS JUST E OF THE UPPER FEATURE. UKMET
...ECMWF AND NOGAPS LEAN TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION...AND WE WILL AS
WELL.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WX THRU THE DAY SAT.
EXACT FCST REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS DEVIATION GIVES
A CLUE AS TO THE INSTABILITY IN THIS MODEL AROUND THE SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH POPS RANGING FROM 15% TO 60%. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
LEAN TOWARD ETA MOS AS WELL UNTIL MODELS GEL ON BETTER SOLUTION.

EXTENDED...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
NIGHTTIME MINS BACK UP A FEW DEGS. SHOULDNT HAVE BIT AS QUICKLY ON
MEX GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY BUMPED ABOUT 3 DEGS
TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER LATER REFINEMENT. STILL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY COOL
OVER INTERIOR AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MINIMAL POPS.

MARINE...E SWELL CONTINUES. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS BELOW 6 FT...SO NO
HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF GULF SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH ETA ATTM.

FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS.

THANX FOR COORD TLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 82 64 80 / 30 20 10 40
SSI 69 80 67 78 / 30 10 10 20
JAX 67 82 68 82 / 30 10 10 30
SGJ 72 80 71 80 / 20 10 10 30
GNV 65 84 66 83 / 30 20 30 40
OCF 65 85 66 84 / 30 30 30 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

CARROLL/CAMP

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-082300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1105 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...IS POSSIBLE.

DUE TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS...THE RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SEE THE LATEST SURF
ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO PART OF SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ARS/CARROLL

GAZ150-152-082015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN WARE
AND WESTERN PIERCE COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL
VALID UNTIL 415 PM...

AT 330 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOBOKEN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HOBOKEN AND HICKOX THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS.

HESS