Storm Surge and High Surf in Oregon, January 2, 2003

Name: Storm Surge and High Surf in Oregon, January 2, 2003
Start: 2003-01-02T07:00
End: 2003-01-02T22:00
Location: Oregon

January 2, 2003 · NWS PQR · 3 events in 2 counties and zones

A potent Pacific storm churned up huge seas hat pounded the Northern and Central Oregon Coast. Off shore buoys reported heaviest seas in the mid to upper 20 foot range.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.

A potent Pacific storm churned up huge seas hat pounded the Northern and Central Oregon Coast. Off shore buoys reported heaviest seas in the mid to upper 20 foot range. The high surf arrived at the time of one of the highest tides of the year, with high tides reported almost 3.5 feet above predicted high tides. This resulted in some minor flooding on Highway 202 in Clatsop County, and on other secondary roads near estuaries.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 2:30 AM PST, 4 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 2, 2:30 AM PST, 4 hours 30 minutes before

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR.
230 AM PST THU JAN 2 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING MORE RAIN OVER THE AREA AND
WINDS TO THE COAST. THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE TOWARD QUEEN CHARLOTTES THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND COASTAL
WIND...THOUGH APPEAR WEAKER. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
WITH EACH STORM. A BREAK MAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK
SHIFTS A BIT NORTH OF THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
SHOWN BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON. FRONT APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 127W AT 10Z.  GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA
AT 10Z WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD TO THE COASTAL STRIP IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 50-70KT AT 12Z
SO WORDING OF ACTIVE HIGH WIND WARNING (NPWPQR) LOOKS GOOD.

FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...7000 FEET OR SO...BUT
EXPECT TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT AT THAT
TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SO SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.

NEXT STRONG SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT TRACK IS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH
WIND AGAIN NEAR THE COAST...BUT THIS LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. WILL HOLD
OFF ON HIGH WIND WATCH AND KEEP COAST ZONE WINDY/VERY WINDS FOR
TONIGHT/FRI. GALES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR NOW. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COASTAL WIND
AGAIN.

WILL KEEP THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (ESFPQR) GOING. APPEARS THAT
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP FLOOD POTENTIAL LOW. HOWEVER
WITH CONTINUING BARRAGE OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SOME RIVERS
MAY POSSIBLY REACH FLOOD LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...MINOR CHANGES. AS LAST SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...EXTENDED
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A DIRTY RIDGE AS A SYSTEM GOING BY
TO THE NORTH DRAGS SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PER COORDINATION WILL HAVE LOW POPS/NO POPS IN
SOUTH SECTIONS MON/TUE AND KEEP CHANCE TO THE NORTH.

AST ++89+  PDX +9789 SLE +9779  EUG +9778

.PQR...STORM WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
      .HIGH SURF ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THURSDAY.
      .HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH WA COAST AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
         OREGON COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
      .FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FRIDAY.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 2, 6:30 AM PST, 30 minutes before

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-031430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST THU JAN 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE COAST. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MOST PRONE AREA WILL BE THE
EXPOSED HEADLANDS WHERE GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

STORM WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL AREAS INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAIN MAY POSE A PROBLEM FOR SOME COASTAL RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO SKYWARN PROCEDURES.

Event by event

2 high surf, 1 storm surge/tide. Local standard time, as filed.

High Surf, Northern Oregon Coast

When: January 2, 7:00 AM PST to 10:00 PM PST
Where: Northern Oregon Coast forecast zone
Reported by: BUOY

High Surf, Central Oregon Coast

When: January 2, 7:00 AM PST to 10:00 PM PST
Where: Central Oregon Coast forecast zone
Reported by: BUOY

Storm Surge/Tide, Northern Oregon Coast

When: January 2, 9:00 AM PST to 1:00 PM PST
Where: Northern Oregon Coast forecast zone
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER

What these are

High Surf: Large waves breaking on the shore that caused damage, erosion or casualties.
Storm Surge/Tide: Water pushed ashore above the normal tide by a storm’s winds and low pressure.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Oregon in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Oregon, January 2003 The 2003 hurricane season

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5339480, 5339482, 5339481.